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Entry, Exit, and Plant-Level Dynamics over the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Yoonsoo Lee
Toshihiko Mukoyama

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of plant-level dynamics over the business cycle. We first document basic patterns of entry and exit of U.S. manufacturing plants, in terms of employment and productivity, between 1972 and 1997. We show how entry and exit patterns vary during the business cycle, and that the cyclical pattern of entry is very different from the cyclical pattern of exit. Second, we build a general equilibrium model of plant entry, exit, and employment and compare its predictions to the data. In our model, plants enter and exit endogenously, and the size and productivity of entering and exiting plants are also determined endogenously. Finally, we explore the policy implications of the model. Imposing a firing tax that is constant over time can destabilize the economy by causing fluctuations in the entry rate. Entry subsidies are found to be effective in stabilizing the entry rate and output.

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File URL: http://www.ces.census.gov/index.php/ces/cespapers?down_key=101824
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 08-17.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:08-17

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Web page: http://www.ces.census.gov

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Related research
Keywords: plant-level dynamics; entry and exit; business cycles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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  6. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-98, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Chang, Yongsung & Gomes, Joao F & Schorfheide, Frank, 2002. "Learning by Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 3599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Eric J. Bartelsman & Mark Doms, 2000. "Understanding Productivity: Lessons from Longitudinal Microdata," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 569-594, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  16. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Namsuk Kim, 2006. "Gross Job Flows for the U.S. Manufacturing Sector: Measurement from the Longitudinal Research Database," Working Papers 06-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson L., 1988. "Plant Turnover And Gross Employment Flows In The U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Papers 9-87-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
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  21. Kirk White & Arpad Abraham, 2004. "The Dynamics of Plant-level Productivity in U.S. Manufacturing," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 332, Society for Computational Economics.
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  28. Russel W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger & Jonathan Willis, 2004. "Dynamics of Labor Demand: Evidence from Plant-level Observations and Aggregate Implications," NBER Working Papers 10297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Barlevy, Gadi, 2002. "The Sullying Effect of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 65-96, January.
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