Reading the recent monetary history of the United States, 1959-2007
Abstract
In this paper the authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary history of the United States and to interpret, through this lens, the sources of the rise and fall of the Great Inflation from the late 1960s to the early 1980s and of the Great Moderation of business cycle fluctuations between 1984 and 2007. Their main findings are that, while there is strong evidence of changes in monetary policy during Chairman Paul Volcker's tenure at the Federal Reserve, those changes contributed little to the Great Moderation. Instead, changes in the volatility of structural shocks account for most of it. Also, although the authors find that monetary policy was different under Volcker, they do not find much evidence of a big difference in monetary policy among the tenures of Chairmen Arthur Burns, G. William Miller, and Alan Greenspan. The difference in aggregate outcomes across these periods is attributed to the time-varying volatility of shocks. The history for inflation is more nuanced, as a more vigorous stand against it would have reduced inflation in the 1970s, but not completely eliminated it. In addition, they find that volatile shocks (especially those related to aggregate demand) were important contributors to the Great Inflation.Download Info
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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 311-338
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Keywords: Monetary policy - United States ; Economic conditions - United States;References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Henry Siu & Nir Jaimovich, 2006.
"The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility,"
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815, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-26, June.
- Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," Discussion Papers 07-010, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2008. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," NBER Working Papers 14063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Henry Siu & Nir Jaimovich, 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," 2007 Meeting Papers 521, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility," Staff Report 387, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006.
"The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
12022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 604-41, June.
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- Stacey L. Schreft, 1990. "Credit controls: 1980," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 25-55.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:- Mi educación sentimental en 10 (12) libros (II)
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