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Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data

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  • Arnoud Stevens
  • Joris Wauters

Abstract

We build a time‐varying parameter model that jointly explains the dynamics of euro area inflation and inflation expectations. Our goal is to explain the weak inflation during the post‐financial crisis economic recovery of 2013–2019. We find that the inclusion of survey data leads to a more muted decline of trend inflation in recent years and more economic slack. Moreover, the impact of economic slack and import prices on inflation has recently strengthened, and survey respondents updated their beliefs more actively over the financial crisis period. Our model compares well against restricted specifications in terms of forecast performance and marginal likelihood.

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  • Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:36:y:2021:i:5:p:566-586
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2813
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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Bañbura & Danilo Leiva-León & Jan-Oliver Menz, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation Forecasts?," Working Papers 2138, Banco de España.
    2. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    4. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. M. Deroose & A. Rannenberg & J. Wauters, 2019. "Separating the trend from the cycle : The debate on euro area potential output and implications for monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-28, September.
    7. Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
    8. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    9. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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