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Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations

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  • Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine
  • Holtemöller, Oliver

Abstract

We investigate drivers of Euro area inflation dynamics using a panel of regional Phillips curves and identify long-run inflation expectations by exploiting the crosssectional dimension of the data. Our approach simultaneously allows for the inclusion of country-specific inflation and unemployment-gaps, as well as time-varying parameters. Our preferred panel specification outperforms various aggregate, uni- and multivariate unobserved component models in terms of forecast accuracy. We find that declining long-run trend inflation expectations and rising inflation persistence indicate an altered risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring. Lower trend inflation, and persistently negative unemployment-gaps, a slightly increasing Phillips curve slope and the downward pressure of low oil prices mainly explain the low inflation rate during the recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:102017
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
    3. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2021. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay? Insights from a time‐varying parameter model with survey data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-586, August.
    4. Fernando Zarzosa Valdivia, 2020. "Inflation Dynamics in the ABC (Argentina, Brazil and Chile) countries," Ensayos de Política Económica, Departamento de Investigación Francisco Valsecchi, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina., vol. 3(2), pages 77-99, Octubre.
    5. Fernando Zarzosa Valdivia, 2020. "Dinámica inflacionaria argentina pre-COVID 19: un mundo minado de outliers," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4428, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation dynamics; inflation expectations; trend inflation; nonlinear state space model; panel UCSV model; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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