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Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times

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  • Conti, Antonio M.

Abstract

I investigate the dynamics of core inflation in Italy, with a special focus on the decline that started in 2012 and the ensuing low-inflation period. Novel composite indicators of labour and financial market conditions are constructed and employed in a factor-augmented Phillips curve framework. Several findings follow. The Phillips curve, apparently dead when based on the unemployment gap or the output gap, is instead correctly underpinned when slack is extracted from the labour market composite indicator: the underlying large set of variables is beneficial for conditionally forecasting core inflation. Second, financial market composite indicators help to better characterize core inflation dynamics in times of unconventional monetary policy and when considering their interactions with economic slack. Third, a steepening of the Phillips curve is evident after 2008, before a stabilization is observed in 2016. These results can inform monetary authorities in their quest for sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.

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  • Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:96:y:2021:i:c:p:172-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.11.019
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Low inflation; Labour and financial markets; Factor models; Phillips curve; Conditional forecasts; Time variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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