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A quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963–2016

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  • Stuart, Rebecca

Abstract

This paper estimates a quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland, using interpolated data starting in 1963. Since only annual GDP data are available before 1980, the paper first discusses how to interpolate them using a multivariate Chow-Lin procedure and by adapting forecast combination methods. The preferred interpolated series is then used to estimate the Phillips Curve over a 50-year period. The results indicate two structural breaks which appear to coincide with shifts in the Swiss National Bank's monetary policy strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "A quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963–2016," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 78-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:78-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.012
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    1. Peter Kugler & George Sheldon, 2010. "Unemployment and Monetary Policy in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 185-208, March.
    2. Baltensperger,Ernst & Kugler,Peter, 2017. "Swiss Monetary History since the Early 19th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107199309.
    3. Peter Kugler & Georg Rich, 2002. "Monetary Policy Under Low Interest Rates: The Experience of Switzerland in the late 1970s," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(III), pages 241-269, September.
    4. Diebold, Francis X, 1988. "Serial Correlation and the Combination of Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(1), pages 105-111, January.
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    6. Rich, Georg, 2003. "Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis," Working Paper Series 236, European Central Bank.
    7. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2010. "Productivity and Economic Growth in Switzerland 1991-2006," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(III), pages 577-600, September.
    8. Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," International Finance Discussion Papers 993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Nelson, Edward, 2008. "Ireland and Switzerland: The jagged edges of the Great Inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 700-732, May.
    10. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    11. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas J. Jordan, 1998. "Erratum to "Are there Shifts in the Output-Inflation Trade-off? The Case of Switzerland"," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 585-585, December.
    12. Gerlach, Stefan, 2016. "The Output-Inflation Trade-Off In Switzerland, 1916 €“ 2015," CEPR Discussion Papers 11714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    14. Ernst Baltensperger & Thomas J. Jordan, 1998. "Are there Shifts in the Output-Inflation Trade-off? The Case of Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(II), pages 121-132, June.
    15. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2022. "Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series. An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10191, CESifo.
    3. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Switzerland; Historical statistics; Long time series; Phillips curve; E1; E4; N1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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