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Ireland and Switzerland: The jagged edges of the Great Inflation

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Nelson, Edward

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Abstract

Ireland and Switzerland both had rising inflation during the early 1970s, but their experiences diverged thereafter, so that they form a rare example of two countries whose inflation rates are poorly correlated with one another over the Great Inflation period. This paper proposes that the monetary policy neglect hypothesis can account for both countries' experiences. Extensive archival evidence is considered for each country regarding the doctrines that guided 1970s policymaking. This evidence establishes that Switzerland's better record is accounted for by the competition between monetary and nonmonetary views of inflation being resolved earlier and more decisively in favor of the monetary view. In Ireland, by contrast, nonmonetary views of inflation dominated policymaking throughout the 1970s.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V64-4NT84VB-2/1/3faa3449f46f6b03244862526f199c9e
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 52 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 700-732
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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:52:y:2008:i:4:p:700-732

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  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Monetary Policy Neglect and the Great Inflation in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand," MPRA Paper 822, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M., 1996. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
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  5. Edward Nelson & Kalin Nikolov, . "Monetary policy and stagflation in the UK," Bank of England working papers 155, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Ireland, Peter N., 1999. "Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 279-291, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Edward Nelson, 2005. "The Great Inflation of the Seventies: What Really Happened?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
  9. Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian & Arthur E. Gandolfi & Anna J. Schwartz & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number darb83-1.
  10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kozicki, Sharon & Hoffman, Barak, 2004. "Rounding Error: A Distorting Influence on Index Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 319-38, June.
  12. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christina D. Romer, 2005. "Commentary on "Origins of the Great Inflation"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 177-186. [Downloadable!]
  14. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  15. Christina Gerberding & Franz Seitz & Andreas Worms, 2005. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 60, Society for Computational Economics.
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  16. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-75, April.
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  17. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Peter N. Ireland, 2006. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," NBER Working Papers 12492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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