IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/2009-ii-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating a Taylor Rule with Markov Switching Regimes for Switzerland

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Perruchoud

Abstract

In this paper a Taylor rule including the exchange rate gap is estimated for Switzerland under the assumption that the parameters depend on two states governed by a Markov switching process. The estimates suggest the presence of an ordinary and an aggressive regime. The former is characterized by a high degree of interest rate smoothing and by significant reactions to inflation and the output gap. The aggressive regime shows much less smoothing, an aggressive reaction to inflation, and a large coefficient on the exchange rate gap. Furthermore, an asymmetry in the occurrence of the two regimes is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Perruchoud, 2009. "Estimating a Taylor Rule with Markov Switching Regimes for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(II), pages 187-220, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2009-ii-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/2009-II-4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ernst Baltensperger & Philipp Hildebrand & Thomas Jordan, 2007. "The Swiss National Bank's monetary policy concept - an example of a 'principles-based' policy framework," Economic Studies 2007-03, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Robert Amano & Donald Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1998. "Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    3. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482, Elsevier.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    5. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
    7. Owyang, Michael T. & Ramey, Garey, 2004. "Regime switching and monetary policy measurement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1577-1597, November.
    8. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    10. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2004. "The inflation bias when the central bank targets the natural rate of unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 91-107, February.
    11. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    12. Rich, Georg, 2003. "Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis," Working Paper Series 236, European Central Bank.
    13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    14. Carlo Altavilla & Luigi Landolfo, 2005. "Do central banks act asymmetrically? Empirical evidence from the ECB and the Bank of England," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 507-519.
    15. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    16. Kuzin, Vladimir, 2006. "The inflation aversion of the Bundesbank: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1671-1686.
    17. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M., 1996. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-103, February.
    18. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "Recession aversion, output and the Kydland-Prescott Barro-Gordon model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 389-394, December.
    19. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    20. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2003. "Interest rate reaction functions and the Taylor rule in the euro area," Working Paper Series 258, European Central Bank.
    21. Frank Smets, 2002. "Output gap uncertainty: Does it matter for the Taylor rule?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 113-129.
    22. Wesche, Katrin, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    23. Nicolas A. Cuche, 2000. "Monetary policy with forward-looking rules: The Swiss case," Working Papers 00.10, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    24. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    25. Cukierman, A., 1999. "The Inflation Bias Result Revisited," Papers 38-99, Tel Aviv.
    26. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    27. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(5), pages 447-447.
    28. Nicolas A. Cuche & Martin K. Hess, 1999. "Estimating Monthly GDP In A General Kalman Filter Framework: Evidence From Switzerland," Working Papers 99.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    29. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    30. Rich, Georg, 1997. "Monetary targets as a policy rule: Lessons from the Swiss experience," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 113-141, June.
    31. Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB, 1999-2006: Words and Deeds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, September.
    32. Stephen K. McNees, 1986. "Modeling the Fed: a forward- looking monetary policy reaction function," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 3-8.
    33. Mr. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 2004/164, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Marwan Elkhoury, 2005. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model of A Monetary Policy Rule for Switzerland. The Case of the Lucas and Friedman Hypothesis," IHEID Working Papers 01-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    35. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    36. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    2. Paolo Surico, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences," Macroeconomics 0210002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Feb 2004.
    3. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    5. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    6. Aoki, Kosuke, 2006. "Optimal commitment policy under noisy information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 81-109, January.
    7. Aoki, Kosuke, 2003. "On the optimal monetary policy response to noisy indicators," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 501-523, April.
    8. Anton Muscatelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules, Policy Preferences, and Uncertainty: Recent Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 597-627, December.
    9. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2003. "What does Monetary Policy Reveal about a Central Bank's Preferences?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 335-359, November.
    10. Wesche, Katrin, 2003. "Monetary Policy in Europe: Evidence from Time-Varying Taylor Rules," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro‐Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, July.
    12. Mr. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2001/184, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2015. "Has Inflation Targeting Changed The Conduct Of Monetary Policy?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213.
    15. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2014. "Monetary Regime Switches and Central Bank Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1591-1626, December.
    16. Barendra Kumar Bhoi & Abhishek Kumar & Prashant Mehul Parab, "undated". "Aggregate demand management, policy errors and optimal monetary policy in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-029, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    17. Alex Cukierman & Stefan Gerlach, 2003. "The inflation bias revisited: theory and some international evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 541-565, September.
    18. Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Monetary policy rules and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 525-535.
    19. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    20. Surico, Paolo, 2007. "The Fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: The case of asymmetric preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 305-324, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; Markov switching; Non-constant transition probabilities; Maximum likelihood; EM algorithm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2009-ii-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kurt Schmidheiny (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgvssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.