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The Output-Inflation Trade-Off In Switzerland, 1916 €“ 2015

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  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

This paper follows Baltensperger and Jordan (1998) and studies the output-inflation trade-off in Switzerland, over the period 1915-2015. We estimate a standard Phillips curve model and provide estimates using a moving window. These show that the parameter on lagged inflation has risen gradually over time and that on import prices has declined. The impact of the output gap rose over time until the 1990s, when it lost all importance. Finally, we test for shifts of the parameters at unknown points in time. We identify four separate sample periods: 1916-1936; 1937-1971; 1971-1993 and 1994-2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan, 2016. "The Output-Inflation Trade-Off In Switzerland, 1916 €“ 2015," CEPR Discussion Papers 11714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11714
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    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Stuart, 2022. "160 Years of aggregate supply and demand in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "A quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963–2016," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 78-86.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output-inflation trade off; Structural break; Phillips curve; Switzerland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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