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Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors

Author

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  • Yunjong Eo
  • Luis Uzeda
  • Benjamin Wong

Abstract

Monetary policy is largely concerned with managing the part of inflation that is persistent (or permanent), a quantity often referred to as trend inflation. For example, a casual reading of any monetary policy report from the Federal Reserve Board will make it clear that, in addition to total (or headline) inflation, the Federal Reserve also focuses on underlying (or core) measures of inflation that exclude more volatile components such as food and energy prices. This strategy is based on the belief that fluctuations in components such as food and energy prices are ultimately temporary and, consequently, should be excluded from monetary policy considerations about the long-run path of inflation. Trend inflation is thus closely related to the concept of core inflation, since both measures provide a reading on inflation without the transient “noise” that is expected to fade in the short run. A more recent development is that goods and services—the two main sectors used to measure inflation—have been experiencing considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics. To do so, we develop an empirical framework that accounts for historical changes in the volatility and comovement of trend inflation in the goods and services sectors for the US. Our main finding is that, while both sectors used to contribute to the overall variation in aggregate trend inflation, since the 1990s variations in trend inflation have been almost entirely dominated by the services sector. Two changes in sector-specific inflation dynamics drive our key result: (i) a large fall in the variance of trend inflation in the goods sector; and (ii) the disappearance of comovement between the two sectors. We document similar findings when extending our analysis to Australia and Canada, suggesting our results are not US-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors," Staff Working Papers 20-45, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:20-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2022. "Global Stagflation," CAMA Working Papers 2022-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    3. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Working Paper 2021/17, Norges Bank.
    4. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & James (Jim) C. MacGee & Luis Uzeda, 2023. "The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation," Discussion Papers 2023-3, Bank of Canada.
    5. Hie Joo Ahn & Matteo Luciani, 2021. "Relative prices and pure inflation since the mid-1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Dora Xia & Egon Zakrajšek, 2021. "Monetary policy, relative prices and inflation control: flexibility born out of success," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices; Monetary policy: transmission of;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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