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Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M. FULLERTON

    (Department of Economics &Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968-0543, USA.)

  • Macie Z. SUBIA

    (b Department of Economics &Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968-0543, USA.)

Abstract

This study develops a business cycle index (BCI) for Lubbock Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). The Stock & Watson (1989; 1991; 1993) methodology is used to develop the BCI and assumes that the co-movements of key economic indicators have a single underlying, unobservable factor. This factor is extracted from the indicators and used to calculate an index that represents economic conditions through an econometric approach. The model uses the Kalman filter smoothing approach which smooths across variables and over time. This results in an index that is smoother with less pronounced expansions and recessions. Indicator series used for the study are: establishment employment, unemployment, real retail sales and real wages that begin in 1990 and include complete data through the end of 2015. Results indicate that the Lubbock business cycle has peaks and troughs that occur later than those for the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. FULLERTON & Macie Z. SUBIA, 2017. "Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 33-52, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:33-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64, Elsevier.
    2. Jesus Cañas & Roberto Coronado & Jose Joaquin Lopez, 2005. "Cyclical differences emerge in border city economies," Crossroads, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 5-8.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, March.
    4. Murphy, Alan P, 2005. "An Economic Activity Index for Ireland: The Dynamic Single-Factor Method," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/05, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Jesus Cañas & Robert W. Gilmer & Keith R. Phillips, 2003. "A new index of coincident economic activity for Houston," Houston Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
    6. Kristen Hamden & Keith R. Phillips, 2004. "Steady-as-she-goes? an analysis of the San Antonio business cycle," Vista 8, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, December.
    8. E. Tebaldi & L. Kelly, 2012. "Measuring economic conditions: an extension of the Stock/Watson methodology," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1865-1869, December.
    9. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 53-62.
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    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional Economics; Business Cycles; Economic Indicators.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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