IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/46407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Adawo, Monday A.
  • Effiong, Ekpeno L.

Abstract

How well does the monetary exchange rate model explain exchange rate behaviour in Nigeria? Using the Johansen -Juselius (1990) and Johansen (1991) cointegration technique, this paper examines the long-run validity of the monetary exchange rate model in Nigeria for the flexible exchange rate regime with quarterly data covering the period 1987 to 2008. We found a unique long-run relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the traditional monetary fundamentals (money supply, output and interest rate differentials). The estimated cointegrating coefficients are theoretically consistent with the monetary model and statistically significant exception of the output differential. In particular, this evidence supports strongly the validity of the monetary exchange rate model for Nigeria and also its relevance to modelling the naira-US dollar exchange rate movement.

Suggested Citation

  • Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46407
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46407/1/MPRA_paper_46407.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Swarna Dutt & Dipak Ghosh, 2000. "An empirical note on the monetary exchange rate model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(10), pages 669-671.
    2. Jan J. J. Groen, 1999. "Long horizon predictability of exchange rates: Is it for real?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 451-469.
    3. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Berben, R-P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9814, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Tatsuyoshi Miyakoshi, 2000. "The monetary approach to the exchange rate: empirical observations from Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(12), pages 791-794.
    7. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 1989. "Co-integration tests for long run equilibrium in the monetary exchange rate model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 263-267, December.
    8. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    9. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-373, April.
    10. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    12. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    13. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    14. Sovannroeun SAMRETH & Dara LONG, 2008. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(31), pages 1-13.
    15. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 385-395.
    16. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    17. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    20. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1991. "The monetary approach to the exchange rate : Long-run relationships and coefficient restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 179-185, October.
    21. J. H. C. Lisman & J. Sandee, 1964. "Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 87-90, June.
    22. Lee Chin & M. Azali & Zulkornain Yusop & Mohammed Yusoff, 2007. "The monetary model of exchange rate: evidence from The Philippines," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 993-997.
    23. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:31:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Georgios P. Kouretas, 1997. "Identifying Linear Restrictions on the Monetary Exchange Rate Model and the Uncovered Interest Parity: Cointegration Evidence from the Canadian-U.S. Dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 875-890, November.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    27. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    28. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    29. Choudhry, Taufiq & Lawler, Phillip, 1997. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Canadian Float of the 1950s," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 349-362, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    2. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach," MPRA Paper 52457, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    2. Uz, Idil & Ketenci, Natalya, 2008. "Panel analysis of the monetary approach to exchange rates: Evidence from ten new EU members and Turkey," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 57-69, March.
    3. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    4. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Chin-Hong Puah, 2009. "Monetary Model of Exchange Rate for Thailand: Long-run Relationship and Monetary Restrictions," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 385-395.
    6. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    7. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    9. Stephanos Papadamou & Thomas Markopoulos, 2012. "The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate Determination for a “Petrocurrency”: The Case of Norwegian Krone," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 18(3), pages 299-314, August.
    10. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    11. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    12. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    13. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    14. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
    15. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    16. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome W., 2019. "Does the long-run monetary model hold for Sub-Saharan Africa? A time series and panel-cointegration study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 279-303.
    17. M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
    18. Hoda SELIM, 2010. "Has Egypt's Monetary Policy Changed after the Float?," EcoMod2010 259600152, EcoMod.
    19. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & M. Masih, A. Mansur & Azali, M., 2002. "The stock market and the ringgit exchange rate: a note," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 471-486, December.
    20. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2017. "The Relevance of the Monetary Model for the Euro / USD Exchange Rate Determination: a Long Run Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 989-1010, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Monetary fundamentals; Monetary exchange rate model; Cointegration; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.