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The dynamic effects of U.S. monetary policy on state unemployment

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  • Korobilis, Dimitris
  • Gilmartin, Michelle

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of monetary shocks to state unemployment rates, within a novel structural factor-augmented VAR framework with a time-varying propagation mechanism. We find evidence of large heterogeneity over time in the responses of state unemployment rates to monetary policy shocks, which do not necessarily comply with the response of the national unemployment rate. We also find evidence of heterogeneity over the spatial dimension, although geographical proximity seems to play an important role in the transmission of monetary shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27596.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27596

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Keywords: regional unemployment; structural VAR; factor model; monetary policy;

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  1. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
  2. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
  4. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  6. Michael Owyang & Howard Wall, 2009. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1191-1194.
  7. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Assessing the transmission of monetary policy using dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 27593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2010.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  9. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
  10. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
  11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  12. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Sheila C. Dow & Alberto Montagnoli, 2007. "The Regional Transmission of UK Monetary Policy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 797-808.
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Cited by:
  1. Irfan akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan & Farhan Akbar, 2011. "The changing international transmission of us monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on oecd countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages A49.
  2. Qingyu, Zhu, 2010. "Regional unemployment and house price determination," MPRA Paper 41785, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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