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What goes down must come up: understanding time-variation in the NAIRU

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  • Evan F. Koenig

Abstract

The behavior of inflation during the 1990s is consistent with the predictions of a model that assumes a constant long-run NAIRU and a constant long-run markup of output prices over unit labor costs. Within this framework, inflation fell during the late 1990s - despite low unemployment - chiefly because an unusually high markup allowed firms to increase wages without raising prices. As the markup returns to normal, the recent unusually favorable unemployment -inflation trade-off can be expected to deteriorate. More generally, movements in the markup induce persistent but ultimately temporary variation in the NAIRU.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0101.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0101

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Unemployment;

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  1. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Flint Brayton & John M. Roberts & John C. Williams, 1999. "What's happened to the Phillips curve?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Ghali, Khalifa H, 1999. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 417-31, August.
  6. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  7. Mehra, Yash P, 1991. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: An Empirical Note," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 931-37, September.
  8. Duca, John V., 1996. "Inflation, unemployment, and duration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 293-298, September.
  9. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  11. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November.
  12. Martin B. Schmidt, 2000. "The Dynamic Behavior of Wages and Prices: Cointegration Tests within a Large Macroeconomic System," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 123-138, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael T. Owyang & Abbigail Chiodo, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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