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Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis

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  • Ghali, Khalifa H

Abstract

Past empirical analysis of the relationship between wages and prices within the expectations-augmented Phillips curve model have raised doubts about the effects of labor costs on inflation. Analysis of the same data used previously reveals the existence of a deterministic linear time component in the wage and price series which past research failed to take into account. Using the Johansen (1988, 1992, 1994) multivariate cointegration technique, the paper provides robust evidence on the consistency of the markup view of the inflation process with the data and concludes that monetary policy should profit from labor costs data in predicting future rates of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghali, Khalifa H, 1999. "Wage Growth and the Inflation Process: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 417-431, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:31:y:1999:i:3:p:417-31
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Pu & Chihying, Hsiao, 2007. "Learning Causal Relations in Multivariate Time Series Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-43.
    2. Zhou, Y., 2014. "Essays on habit formation and inflation hedging," Other publications TiSEM 4886da12-1b84-4fd9-aa07-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Johannes Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2018. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(2), pages 197-230, June.
    4. Saten Kumar & Don J. Webber & Geoff Perry, 2012. "Real wages, inflation and labour productivity in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(23), pages 2945-2954, August.
    5. Carsten A Holz & Aaron Mehrotra, 2013. "Wage and price dynamics in a large emerging economy: The case of China," BIS Working Papers 409, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Elke Hahn, 2021. "How are wage developments passed through to prices in the euro area? Evidence from a BVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(22), pages 2467-2485, May.
    7. Höpner, Martin & Seeliger, Martin, 2017. "Transnationale Lohnkoordination zur Stabilisierung des Euro? Gab es nicht, gibt es nicht, wird es nicht geben," MPIfG Discussion Paper 17/13, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    8. Jonsson, Magnus & Palmqvist, Stefan, 2004. "Do Higher Wages Cause Inflation?," Working Paper Series 159, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Luojia Hu & Maude Toussaint-Comeau, 2010. "Do labor market activities help predict inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 34(Q II), pages 52-63.
    10. Gross, Marco, 2022. "Beautiful cycles: A theory and a model implying a curious role for interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Attilio Zanetti, 2007. "Do Wages Lead Inflation? Swiss Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 143(I), pages 67-92, March.
    12. Robert Sollis & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "A Cautionary Note on the Order of Integration of Post‐war Aggregate Wage, Price and Productivity Measures," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 261-282, March.
    13. Jack Strauss & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "The Linkage between Prices, Wages, and Labor Productivity: A Panel Study of Manufacturing Industries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 920-941, April.
    14. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2008. "Testing of seasonal integration and cointegration with fractionally integrated techniques: An application to the Danish labour demand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 326-339, March.
    15. Zhiyong Fan, 2009. "Is China’s inflation pushed by wages? An empirical research based on excess wages," Frontiers of Economics in China, Springer;Higher Education Press, vol. 4(4), pages 572-587, December.
    16. Stan du Plessis & Nico Katzke & Evan Gilbert & Chris Hart, 2015. "Mark-ups and competition: a comparison of the profitability of listed South African industrial companies," Working Papers 02/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    17. Höpner, Martin & Lutter, Mark, 2014. "One currency and many modes of wage formation: Why the eurozone is too heterogeneous for the euro," MPIfG Discussion Paper 14/14, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    18. M. A. Ivanova, 2016. "Analysis of the nature of cause-and-effect relationship between inflation and wage in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 575-584, September.
    19. Yash P. Mehra, 2000. "Wage-price dynamics : are they consistent with cost push?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 27-43.
    20. Gregory D. Hess & Mark E. Schweitzer, 2000. "Does wage inflation cause price inflation?," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
    21. Evan F. Koenig, 2001. "What goes down must come up: understanding time-variation in the NAIRU," Working Papers 0101, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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