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A factor-augmented VAR approach: The effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada

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Author Info

  • Laganà, Gianluca
  • Sgro, Pasquale Michael

Abstract

In this paper a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model is estimated to characterize the dynamic effects of shocks in the personal income tax rate in the United States on United States and Canadian economies. The representation and the estimate of the FAVAR model is based on Stock and Watson (2005) and the shocks are recovered applying the identification scheme proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005); this method allows impulse response functions to be generated for all the variables in the dataset and provides a description of the domestic and international transmission mechanisms of United States movements in the personal income tax rate. A distinguishing feature of our model is the disaggregation of traded goods sector where imports and exports are disaggregated into 12 and 13 industries, respectively. This provides extra information on the domestic and international transmission mechanism across the two countries. The results show that the FAVAR approach generates a reasonable characterisation of the effects of United States movements in the US personal income tax rate on the United States economy and its transmission to the Canadian economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 1163-1169

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:1163-1169

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Factor model Principal component Personal income taxes VAR;

References

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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  3. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  6. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 1425, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  9. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "The Effects of Public Spending Shocks on Trade Balances and Budget Deficits in the European Union," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 414-423, 04-05.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Takao Fujii & Kazuki Hiraga & Masafumi Kozuka, 2012. "Analyses of Public Investment Shock in Japan: Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive Approach," Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series 2012-006, Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program.
  2. Fujii, Takao & Hiraga, Kazuki & Kozuka, Masafumi, 2013. "Effects of public investment on sectoral private investment: A factor augmented VAR approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 35-47.
  3. Gianluca Lagana & Pasquale Sgro, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and US-Canadian Trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1856-1868.

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