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The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Clive Bowsher ()
Roland Meeks ()
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The class of Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) models is introduced that provides a new, general method for modelling and forecasting time series of economic functions. The underlying, continuous economic function (or 'signal') is a natural cubic spline whose dynamic evolution is driven by a cointegrated vector autoregression for the ordinates (or 'y-values') at the knots of the spline. The natural cubic spline provides flexible cross-sectional fit and results in a linear, state space model. This FSN model achieves dimension reduction, provides a coherent description of the observed yield curve and its dynamics as the cross-sectional dimension N becomes large, and can feasibly be estimated and used for forecasting when N is large. The integration and cointegration properties of the model are derived. The FSN models are then applied to forecasting 36-dimensional yield curves for US Treasury bonds at the one month ahead horizon. The method consistently outperforms the Diebold and Li (2006) and random walk forecasts on the basis of both mean square forecast error criteria and economically relevant loss functions derived from the realised profits of pairs trading algorithms. The analysis also highlights in a concrete setting the dangers of attempts to infer the relative economic value of model forecasts on the basis of their associated mean square forecast errors.
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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number
2008fe24.
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Length: 40
Date of creation: 2008Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2008fe24Contact details of provider: Email: Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: FSN-ECM models functional time series term structure forecasting interest rates natural cubic spline state space form. Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
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