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Flexible Term Structure Estimation: Which Method Is Preferred?

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Author Info
Andrew Mark Jeffrey () (School of Management)
Oliver B. Linton () (Department of Economics)

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Abstract

We show that the recently developed nonparametric procedure for fitting the term structure of interest rates developed by Linton, Mammen, Nielsen, and Tanggaard (2000) overall performs notably better than the highly flexible McCulloch (1975) cubic spline and Fama and Bliss (1987) bootstrap methods. However, if interest is limited to the Treasury bill region alone then the Fama-Bliss method demonstrates superior performance. We further show, via simulation, that using the estimated short rate from the Linton-Mammen-Nielsen-Tanggaard procedure as a proxy for the short rate has higher precision then the commonly used proxies of the one and three month Treasury bill rates. It is demonstrated that this precision is important when using proxies to estimate the stochastic process governing the evolution of the short rate.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm171.

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Date of creation: 08 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm171

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Related research
Keywords: Term Structure; yield curve estimation; curve fitting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. "Bond Price Data and Bond Market Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(03), pages 367-378, September. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chapman, David A & Long, John B, Jr & Pearson, Neil D, 1999. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When Are Three Months Like an Instant?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 763-806.
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  4. Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. O. Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen & C. Tanggaard, . "Estimating Yield Curves by Kernel Smoothing Methods," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-54, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  7. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Jamieson Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Clive Bowsher & Roland Meeks, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe24, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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