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Flexible Term Structure Estimation: Which Method is Preferred?

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Linton

  • Andrew Jeffrey
  • Thong Nguyen

Abstract

We show the recently developed nonparametric procedure for fitting the term structure interest rates developed by Linton, Mammen, Nielsen, and Tanggaard (2000) overall performs notably better than the highly felxible McCulloch (1975) cubic spline and Fama and Bliss (1987) bootstrap methods. However if interest is limited to the Treasury bill region alone then the Fama-Bliss method demonstrates superior performance. We show, via simulation, that using the estimated short rate from the Linton-Mammen-Nielsen-Tanggaard procedure as a proxy for the short rate has higher precision than the commonly used proxies of the one and three month Treasury bill rates. It is demonstrated that this precision is important when using proxies to estimate the stochastic process governing the evolution of the short rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Linton & Andrew Jeffrey & Thong Nguyen, 2001. "Flexible Term Structure Estimation: Which Method is Preferred?," FMG Discussion Papers dp385, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp385
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    Cited by:

    1. David Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada.
    2. Bowsher, Clive G. & Meeks, Roland, 2008. "The Dynamics of Economic Functions: Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1419-1437.
    3. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    4. Antonio Diaz & Francisco Jareno & Eliseo Navarro, 2010. "Term structure of volatilities and yield curve estimation methodology," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 573-586.
    5. Tong, Xiaojun & He, Zhuoqiong Chong & Sun, Dongchu, 2018. "Estimating Chinese Treasury yield curves with Bayesian smoothing splines," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 94-124.
    6. Oliveira, Luís & Curto, José Dias & Nunes, João Pedro, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign credit spread changes in the Euro-zone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 278-304.
    7. Luís Oliveira & João Vidal Nunes & Luís Malcato, 2014. "The performance of deterministic and stochastic interest rate risk measures:," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(3), pages 141-165, December.
    8. Tatyana Krivobokova & Göran Kauermann & Theofanis Archontakis, 2006. "Estimating the term structure of interest rates using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 443-459, June.
    9. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General

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