Yield curve estimation by kernel smoothing methods
We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government issued coupon bonds. Our approach is nonparametric and does not assume a particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various restrictions in the estimation. Our method is based on kernel smoothing and is defined as the minimum of some localized population moment condition. The solution to the sample problem is not explicit and our estimation procedure is iterative, rather like the backfitting method of estimating additive nonparametric models. We establish the asymptotic normality of our methods using the asymptotic representation of our estimator as an infinite series with declining coefficients. The rate of convergence is standard for one dimensional nonparametric regression. We investigate the finite sample performance of our method, in comparison with other well-established methods, in a small simulation experiment.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 253-269, September.
- Chambers, Donald R. & Carleton, Willard T. & Waldman, Donald W., 1984. "A New Approach to Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 233-252, September.
- Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "The Stochastic Difference between Econometric Statistics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 531-48, May.
- Schaefer, Stephen M, 1981. "Measuring a Tax-Specific Term Structure of Interest Rates in the Market for British Government Securities," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 415-38, June.
- Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
- Hausman, J.A. & Newey, W.K., 1992.
"Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss,"
93-2, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1445-76, November.
- Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1999.
"The existence and asymptotic properties of a backfitting projection algorithm under weak conditions,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
300, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Enno Mammen & Oliver Linton & J Nielsen, 2000. "The existence and asymptotic properties of a backfitting projection algorithm under weak conditions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2315, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen & N Nielsen, 2000. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm under Weak Conditions," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 386, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. " Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1411-25, September.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Lown, Cara S, 1994.
"An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve along Its Entire Length,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-30, May.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An indicator of future inflation extracted from the steepness of the interest rate yield curve along its entire length," Research Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted From the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," NBER Working Papers 3751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver Linton, 2000.
"Efficient estimation of generalized additive nonparametric regression models,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Linton, Oliver B., 2000. "Efficient Estimation Of Generalized Additive Nonparametric Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(04), pages 502-523, August.
- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
NBER Working Papers
3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- repec:att:wimass:9429 is not listed on IDEAS
- Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Young Ho Eom & Jun Uno, 1998. "Coupon Effects and the Pricing of Japanese Government Bonds: An Empirical Analysis," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-078, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- John Rust, 1997.
"Using Randomization to Break the Curse of Dimensionality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 487-516, May.
- John Rust & Department of Economics & University of Wisconsin, 1994. "Using Randomization to Break the Curse of Dimensionality," Computational Economics 9403001, EconWPA, revised 04 Jul 1994.
- Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 163-83, June.
- Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993.
"An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
- Klein, R.W. & Spady, R.H., 1991. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Papers 70, Bell Communications - Economic Research Group.
- repec:cep:stiecm:/2000/386 is not listed on IDEAS
- McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996.
"Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators,"
9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Opsomer, Jan & Ruppert, David, 1997. "Fitting a Bivariate Additive Model by Local Polynomial Regression," Staff General Research Papers 1071, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- McCulloch, J Huston, 1971.
"Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to estimate term structure with cubic splines," Statistical Software Components RTZ00019, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1995. " The Predictive Power of Yield Spreads for Future Interest Rates: Evidence from the Danish Term Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 145-59, March.
- Andrew Chesher, 1997. "Diet Revealed?: Semiparametric Estimation of Nutrient Intake-Age Relationships," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 389-428.
- Tanggaard, Carsten, 1997. " Nonparametric Smoothing of Yield Curves," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 251-67, October.
- Jordan, James V, 1984. " Tax Effects in Term Structure Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 393-406, June.
- Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Matzkin, Rosa L., 1986. "Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 42, pages 2523-2558 Elsevier.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:105:y:2001:i:1:p:185-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.