IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb373/199954.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating yield curves by Kernel smoothing methods

Author

Listed:
  • Linton, Oliver
  • Mammen, Enno
  • Nielsen, Jens Perch
  • Tanggaard, Carsten

Abstract

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government issued coupon bonds. Our approach is non-parametric and does not assume particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various restrictions in the estimation. Our method is based on Kernel smoothing and is defined as the minimum of some localized population moment condition. The solution to the sample problem is not explicit and our estimation procedure is iterative, rather like the backfitting method of estimating non-parametric models. We establish the asymptotic normality of our methods using the asymptotic representation of our estimator as an infinite series with declining coefficients. The rate of convergence is standard for one-dimensional nonparametric conversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Linton, Oliver & Mammen, Enno & Nielsen, Jens Perch & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1998. "Estimating yield curves by Kernel smoothing methods," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199954
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/61772/1/722290594.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Linton, Oliver B., 2000. "Efficient Estimation Of Generalized Additive Nonparametric Regression Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 502-523, August.
    2. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 253-269, September.
    3. Chambers, Donald R. & Carleton, Willard T. & Waldman, Donald W., 1984. "A New Approach to Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 233-252, September.
    4. Tanggaard, Carsten, 1997. "Nonparametric Smoothing of Yield Curves," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 251-267, October.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
    6. Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    9. John Rust, 1997. "Using Randomization to Break the Curse of Dimensionality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 487-516, May.
    10. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    11. Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 163-183, June.
    12. Klein, Roger W & Spady, Richard H, 1993. "An Efficient Semiparametric Estimator for Binary Response Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 387-421, March.
    13. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Matzkin, Rosa L., 1986. "Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 42, pages 2523-2558, Elsevier.
    15. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    16. Jordan, James V, 1984. "Tax Effects in Term Structure Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 393-406, June.
    17. Hausman, Jerry A & Newey, Whitney K, 1995. "Nonparametric Estimation of Exact Consumers Surplus and Deadweight Loss," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1445-1476, November.
    18. J. P. Nielsen & O. B. Linton, 1998. "An optimization interpretation of integration and back‐fitting estimators for separable nonparametric models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(1), pages 217-222.
    19. Andrew Chesher, 1997. "Diet Revealed?: Semiparametric Estimation of Nutrient Intake–Age Relationships," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 389-428, September.
    20. Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Jeffrey & Linton, Oliver Linton & Thong Nguyen & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2001. "Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1311, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linton, Oliver & Mammen, Enno & Nielsen, Jans Perch & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "Yield curve estimation by kernel smoothing methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 185-223, November.
    2. Emma Berenguer-Carceles & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2012. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Methodology and Applications," Working Papers 12.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    3. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    6. Lin, Bing-Huei, 1999. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates for Taiwanese government bonds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 331-352, November.
    7. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella, 1996. "Construction of Zero-Coupon Yield Curve From Coupon Bond Yield Using Australian Data," Working Paper Series 70, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Bing-Huei Lin, 2002. "Fitting term structure of interest rates using B-splines: the case of Taiwanese Government bonds," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 57-75.
    9. James M. Steeley, 2008. "Testing Term Structure Estimation Methods: Evidence from the UK STRIPS Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1489-1512, October.
    10. Lutz Kruschwitz, 2018. "Das Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 9-45, March.
    11. Li, Qi & Hsiao, Cheng & Zinn, Joel, 2003. "Consistent specification tests for semiparametric/nonparametric models based on series estimation methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 295-325, February.
    12. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2003. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a nonstructural analysis," Working Paper Series 2003-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Leif Andersen, 2007. "Discount curve construction with tension splines," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 227-267, December.
    14. Nagy, Krisztina, 2020. "Term structure estimation with missing data: Application for emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 347-360.
    15. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
    16. Horowitz, Joel L., 2004. "Semiparametric models," Papers 2004,17, Humboldt University of Berlin, Center for Applied Statistics and Economics (CASE).
    17. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
    18. Gao, Jiti, 2007. "Nonlinear time series: semiparametric and nonparametric methods," MPRA Paper 39563, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2007.
    19. Varga, Gyorgy, 2009. "Teste de Modelos Estatísticos para a Estrutura a Termo no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 63(4), December.
    20. Varga, Gyorgy, 2009. "Teste de Modelos Estatísticos para a Estrutura a Termo no Brasil [Test of Term Structure Models for Brazil]," MPRA Paper 20832, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfhubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.