Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Is long memory necessary? An empirical investigation of nonnegative interest rate processes

Contents:

Author Info

  • Duan, Jin-Chuan
  • Jacobs, Kris
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper analyzes a class of nonnegative processes for the short-term interest rate. The dynamics of interest rates and yields are driven by the dynamics of the conditional volatility of the pricing kernel. We study Markovian interest rate processes as well as more general non-Markovian processes that display "short" and "long" memory. These processes also display heteroskedasticity patterns that are more general than those of existing models. We find that deviations from the Markovian structure significantly improve the empirical performance of the model. Certain aspects of the long memory effect can be captured with a (less parsimonious) short memory parameterization, but a simulation experiment suggests that the implied term structures corresponding to the estimated long- and short-memory specifications are very different. We also find that the choice of proxy for the short rate affects the estimates of heteroskedasticity patterns.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFG-4PXDM1K-2/1/3455d391ac448b6e79ec96c574d72cb1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 567-581

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:567-581

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    3. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-29, December.
    4. G. Pfann & P. Schotman & R. Tschernig, 1994. "Nonlinear Interest Rate Dynamics and Implications for the Term Structure," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1994,43, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    7. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Pennacchi, George G, 1996. "The Behavior of Interest Rates Implied by the Term Structure of Eurodollar Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 426-46, August.
    8. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    9. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    10. Backus, David K & Zin, Stanley E, 1993. "Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 681-700, August.
    11. Robert A. Connolly & Nuray G�ner, 1999. "Long Memory Characteristics of the Distribution of Treasury Security Yields, Returns, and Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 943, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    13. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
    14. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-96, May.
    15. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    16. Duan, Jin-Chuan, 1997. "Augmented GARCH (p,q) process and its diffusion limit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 97-127, July.
    17. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
    18. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
    19. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
    20. David A. Chapman & John B. Long Jr. & Neil D. Pearson, 1998. "Using Proxies for the Short Rate: When are Three Months Like an Instant?," Finance 9808004, EconWPA, revised 07 Oct 1998.
    21. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Koedijk, C.G. & Nissen, F. & Schotman, P.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1997. "The dynamics of short-term interest rate volatility reconsidered," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108628, Tilburg University.
    23. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    24. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
    25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    26. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    27. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Jacobs, Kris, 1996. "A simple long-memory equilibrium interest rate model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 317-321, December.
    28. Conley, Timothy G, et al, 1997. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Subordinated Diffusions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 525-77.
    29. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1994. "Reverse Engineering the Yield Curve," Working Papers 94-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    30. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
    31. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    32. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
    33. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
    34. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. " Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2013. "Indirect Inference in fractional short-term interest rate diffusions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 109-126.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:567-581. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.