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Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects

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Author Info
Christiansen, Charlotte () (Department of Finance, Aarhus School of Business)

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Abstract

The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional

to the y’th power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance

matrix evolves according to a multivariate GARCH process (heteroskedasticity effects).

The conditional long rate variance exhibits heteroskedasticity effects and level effects in

accordance with the square-root model. The conditional spread variance exhibits heteroskedasticity

effects but no level effects. The level-GARCH model is preferred above the

GARCH model and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies in its series Finance Working Papers with number 02-19.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 09 May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2002_019

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Postal: The Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
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Related research
Keywords: Heteroskedasticity effects; Level effects; Multivariate level-GARCH model; Two-factor term structure model;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  6. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1980. " An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 389-403, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 907-929, November. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1979. "A continuous time approach to the pricing of bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 133-155, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Schaefer, Stephen M. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1984. "A Two-Factor Model of the Term Structure: An Approximate Analytical Solution," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 413-424, December. [Downloadable!]
  14. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
  17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching: Bivariate Modeling of US and European Short Rates," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2005-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sandy Suardi & O.T.Henry & N. Olekalns, . "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility: Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0206, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Shu Wu, 2005. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200519, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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