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Importancia de los términos de intercambio en la economía colombiana

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  • Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe
  • Sierra, Lya Paola

Abstract

Dado que la mayoría de las exportaciones de Colombia consisten en materias primas, cuyos precios determinan directamente los términos de intercambio, se hace necesario un análisis detallado de los impactos de esa variable en la economía. En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de los choques en los términos de intercambio sobre la producción, la inversión, el consumo, la balanza comercial, el tipo de cambio real y la inflación en Colombia. Se emplea una extensa base de datos, compuesta por 129 variables relacionadas con la actividad económica correspondientes al período 2001-2016, y se estima un modelo FAVAR. Los resultados sugieren que los choques en los términos de intercambio generan efectos significativos sobre la economía colombiana, ya que explican aproximadamente un 5% de la variación de la actividad económica del país, un 8% de la inversión, un 6% de la balanza comercial y un 1% del movimiento en el tipo de cambio real.

Suggested Citation

  • Oviedo Gómez, Andrés Felipe & Sierra, Lya Paola, 2019. "Importancia de los términos de intercambio en la economía colombiana," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col070:44740
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    2. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Felipe Oviedo-Gómez, 2020. "Efecto derrame del mercado internacional en las economías latinoamericanas: los casos de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 39(70), pages 107-138, July.
    3. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Oviedo-Gómez, 2021. "La tasa de cambio y sus impactos en los agregados económicos colombianos: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 29(2), pages 121-142, October.

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