Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael J. Roberts
  • Wolfram Schlenker

Abstract

We present a new framework to identify demand and supply elasticities of agricultural commodities using yield shocks - deviations from a time trend of output per area, which are predominantly caused by weather fluctuations. Demand is identified using current-period shocks that give rise to exogenous shifts in supply. Supply is identified using past shocks, which affect expected future prices through inventory accretion or depletion. We use our estimated elasticities to evaluate the impact of ethanol subsidies and mandates on world food commodity prices, quantities, and food consumers' surplus. The current US ethanol mandate requires that about 5 percent of world caloric production from corn, wheat, rice, and soybeans be used for ethanol generation. As a result, world food prices are predicted to increase by about 30 percent and global consumer surplus from food consumption is predicted to decrease by 155 billion dollars annually. If a third of the biofuel calories are recycled as feed stock for livestock, the predicted price increase scales back to 20 percent. While commodity demand is extremely inelastic, price response is muted by a significant supply response that is obscured if futures prices are not instrumented. The resulting expansion of agricultural growing area potentially offsets the CO2 emission benefits from biofuels.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15921.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15921.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2265-95, October.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15921

Note: EEE
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Stephen P. Holland & Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Nathan C. Parker, 2011. "Some Inconvenient Truths About Climate Change Policy: The Distributional Impacts of Transportation Policies," Working Papers 1116, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  2. Steven T. Berry & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2013. "Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Harvest Volatility," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nicolas Merener, 2012. "Globally Distributed Production and Asset Pricing:the Rise of Latin America in CME Soybean Futures," Business School Working Papers 2012-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  4. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2012. "Commodity Price Adjustment in a Competitive Storage Model with an Application to the US Biofuel Policies," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124869, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields," NBER Chapters, in: The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy, pages 271-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," Working Papers 13-52, Bank of Canada.
  7. Goodwin, Barry K. & Marra, Michele C. & Piggott, Nicholas E. & Mueller, Steffen, 2012. "Is Yield Endogenous to Price? An Empirical Evaluation of Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Corn Yield Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124884, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  8. Nicole Condon & Heather Klemick & Ann Wolverton, 2013. "Impacts of Ethanol Policy on Corn Prices: A Review and Meta-Analysis of Recent Evidence," NCEE Working Paper Series 201305, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Oct 2013.
  9. Wolfram Schlenker, 2011. "Comment on "Markets for Anthropogenic Carbon within the Larger Carbon Cycle"," NBER Chapters, in: The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy, pages 102-105 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tran, A. Nam & Welch, Jarrod R. & Lobell, David & Roberts, Michael J. & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Volatility in Response to Anticipated Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124827, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  12. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2014. "On the Estimation of Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodites," MPRA Paper 56126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Chen, Shuai & Chen, Xiaoguang & Xu, Jintao, 2014. "Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: Evidence from China," Discussion Papers dp-14-07-efd, Resources For the Future.
  14. Roberts, Michael J. & Tran, A. Nam, 2013. "Conditional Suspension of the US Ethanol Mandate using Threshold Price inside a Competitive Storage Model," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150717, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  15. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Smith, Aaron D., 2012. "Comparing the Bias of Dynamic Panel Estimators in Multilevel Panels: Individual versus Grouped Data," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124548, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  16. Timothy A. Wise, 2012. "The Cost to Mexico of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion," GDAE Working Papers 12-01, GDAE, Tufts University.

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate (AER 2013) in ReplicationWiki

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.