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Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil

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Abstract

The elasticity of aggregate supply is one key to understanding the degree to which policy-induced increases in demand for biofuel feedstocks or agricultural CO2 offsets will result in higher prices or expanded supply. In this paper we report land supply elasticities for the United States and Brazil estimated directly from the observed changes in cropland and estimated changes in expected returns. The resulting aggregate implied land-use elasticities with respect to price are quite inelastic in the United States and more elastic in Brazil (0.007-0.029 and 0.382-0.895, respectively). However, with pasture land included in Brazil, implied elasticities become much less inelastic (0.007-0.245).

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Paper provided by Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University in its series Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications with number 10-wp505.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ias:fpaper:10-wp505

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Keywords: acreage elasticity; Brazil; indirect land-use change; land-use elasticities.;

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References

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  1. Hongli Feng & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Impacts of Ethanol on Planted Acreage in Market Equilibrium," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 789-802.
  2. Tristan Brown & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes, 2010. "Market Impact of Domestic Offset Programs," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 10-wp502, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  3. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Thomas Hertel & Ruben Lubowski, 2009. "Calibration of a Land Cover Supply Function Using Transition Probabilities," GTAP Research Memoranda 2947, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  4. Tweeten, Luther G & Quance, C Leroy, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 175-83, May.
  5. Davison, Cecil W. & Crowder, Bradley M., 1991. "Northeast Soybean Acreage Response Using Expected Net Returns," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 20(1), April.
  6. Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Sanford, Scott & Skinner, Robert A. & Westcott, Paul C. & Lin, William W., 2000. "Supply Response Under The 1996 Farm Act And Implications For The U.S. Field Crops Sector," Technical Bulletins 33568, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  7. Kevin C. Dhuyvetter, 2004. "Using Formula Prices in the Absence of Publicly Reported Prices: An Application for Segregated Early Weaned Pigs," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 26(4), pages 539-551.
  8. Houck, James P. & Ryan, Mary E., 1972. "Supply Analysis For Corn In The United States: The Impact Of Changing Government Programs," Staff Papers 13554, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  9. Chad E. Hart & Bruce A. Babcock, 2005. "Loan Deficiency Payments versus Countercyclical Payments: Do We Need Both for a Price Safety Net?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-bp44, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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Cited by:
  1. Dimaranan, Betina V. & Laborde, David, 2012. "Ethanol Trade Policy and Global Biofuel Mandates," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126869, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Yang, Jun & Huang, Jikun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2013. "The Role of Cultivated Land Expansion on the Impacts to Global Agricultural Markets from Biofuels," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149614, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Hertel, Thomas W., 2011. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2011 Conference (55th), February 8-11, 2011, Melbourne, Australia 100557, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  4. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & von Braun, Joachim, 2013. "Short-term global crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Discussion Papers 145308, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  5. Hendricks, Nathan P. & Smith, Aaron D., 2012. "Comparing the Bias of Dynamic Panel Estimators in Multilevel Panels: Individual versus Grouped Data," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124548, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  6. Mann, Michael L. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Bauer, Dana Marie & Gopal, Sucharita & Nomack, Mallory & Womack, Jesse Y. & Sullivan, Kerry & Soares-Filho, Britaldo S., 2014. "Pasture conversion and competitive cattle rents in the Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 182-190.
  7. Haile, Mekbib G. & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Braun, Joachim von, 2013. "Inter-and intra-annual global crop acreage response to prices and price risk," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149695, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  8. Sobowale, Flakkeh & Dicks, Michael R. & Adam, Brian D. & Campiche, Jody L., 2012. "Impact of United States Corn-Based Ethanol Production on Land Use," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119800, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  9. Debowicz, Dario & Segal, Paul, 2012. "Structural change in Argentina, 1935–60: The role of import substitution and factor endowments," IFPRI discussion papers 1212, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  10. Sharp, Benjamin E. & Miller, Shelie A., 2014. "Estimating maximum land use change potential from a regional biofuel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 261-269.
  11. Richards, Peter D., 2012. "Exchange Rates, Soybean Supply Response, and Deforestation in South America," Graduate Research Masters Degree Plan B Papers 138606, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

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