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Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation

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  • Miguel Carriquiry
  • Amani Elobeid
  • Jerome Dumortier
  • Ryan Goodrich

Abstract

We estimate emissions from indirect land‐use change associated with U.S. corn ethanol production by using the updated Center for Agricultural and Rural Development/Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute global agricultural outlook model, which incorporates sub‐national land‐use modeling in Brazil and endogenous crop yield‐price relationships. Emissions estimates range between 9.7–23.9 g CO2 per mega Joule (MJ−1), which is consistent with other estimates. We compare the results of the current model to the 2008 model version. Using the data from the 2016 model in the 2008 model results in emissions that range from 23.2–32.2 g CO2 MJ−1. The addition of detailed modelling in Brazil, for example, double‐cropping, reduced estimates considerably and highlights the importance of continuous improvements in global agricultural models.

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  • Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:42:y:2020:i:3:p:497-523
    DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppy033
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    Cited by:

    1. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    2. Jerome Dumortier & Amani Elobeid, 2020. "Effects of the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act on U.S. and Global Agricultural Markets," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 20-wp598, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel, 2022. "Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Gal Hochman & Chrysostomos Tabakis, 2020. "Biofuels and Their Potential in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, September.
    5. Dumortier, Jerome & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Effects of a carbon tax in the United States on agricultural markets and carbon emissions from land-use change," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    6. Dumortier, Jerome & Carriquiry, Miguel & Elobeid, Amani, 2021. "Where does all the biofuel go? Fuel efficiency gains and its effects on global agricultural production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    7. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.

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