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Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change

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Author Info
Searchinger, Timothy
Heimlich, Ralph
Houghton, R. A.
Dong, Fengxia
Elobeid, Amani
Fabiosa, Jacinto F.
Tokgoz, Simla
Hayes, Dermot J.
Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward)

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Abstract

Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12881.

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Date of creation: 13 Mar 2008
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Publication status: Published in Science, February 2008, Vol. 319, No. 5867, pp. 1157-1268.
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12881

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
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  1. Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Breaking the Link between Food and Biofuels," Staff General Research Papers 12961, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Simla Tokgoz, 2009. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 09-wp493, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Roger A. Samson & Stephanie Bailey Stamler, 2009. "Going Green for Less: Cost-Effective Alternative Energy Sources," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 282, February. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad E. & Chavez, Edward & Pan, Suwen & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Dum, 2009. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Staff General Research Papers 13052, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Emilio Cerdá & Alejandro Caparrós & Paola Ovando, 2008. "Bioenergía en la Unión Europea," Economic Reports 26-08, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems. [Downloadable!]
  7. Miranowski, John & Swenson, David & Eathington, Liesl & Rosburg, Alicia, 2008. "Biofuel, the rural economy, and farm structure," Transition to a Bio Economy Conferences, Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48720, Farm Foundation. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jiang, Yong & Swinton, Scott M., 2008. "Market Interactions, Farmer Choices, and the Sustainability of Growing Advanced Biofuels," Staff Papers 43634, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Feng, Hongli & Babcock, Bruce A., 2008. "Impacts of Ethanol on Planted Acreage in Market Equilibrium," Staff General Research Papers 12959, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Turnquist, Alan & Fortenbery, T. Randall & Foltz, Jeremy, 2008. "Progress or Devastation? The Effects of Ethanol Plant Location on Local Land Use," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6125, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  11. Sexton, Steven E. & Rajagopal, Deepak & Hochman, Gal & Roland-Holsts, David W. & Zilberman, David, 2008. "Biofuel: distributional and other implications of current and the next generation technologies," Transition to a Bio Economy Conferences, Risk, Infrastructure and Industry Evolution Conference, June 24-25, 2008, Berkeley, California 48721, Farm Foundation. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Uwe A. Schneider & Pete Smith, 2008. "Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation and Emission Intensities in Agriculture," Working Papers FNU-164, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
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