IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcr/wpaper/e131.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Cash Usage Trends in Japan: Evidence Using Aggregate and Household Survey Data

Author

Listed:
  • Hiroshi FUJIKI
  • Kiyotaka Nakashima

Abstract

We examine the trends in cash usage in Japan and its substitution with noncash payment methods, such as credit cards and electronic money, using both aggregate and individual household survey data. We find that cash hoarding accounts for as much as 42% of total cash circulation in Japan. Behind this finding lies an unstable semi-log cash demand function after the late 1990s and a stable log-log cash demand function from 1995 to 2016. We also find that the extent of possible decreases in cash demand because of the substitution of cash for credit cards in day-to-day transactions is not large. Our back-of-the-envelope estimate of the possible maximum decrease in cash demand for day-to-day transactions is at most 0.4% in 2017 of the total cash in circulation in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi FUJIKI & Kiyotaka Nakashima, 2019. "Cash Usage Trends in Japan: Evidence Using Aggregate and Household Survey Data," Working Papers e131, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcer.or.jp/wp/pdf/e131.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    2. Benati, Luca & Lucas, Robert E. & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Weber, Warren, 2021. "International evidence on long-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 43-63.
    3. Janet Hua Jiang & Enchuan Shao, 2014. "Understanding the Cash Demand Puzzle," Staff Working Papers 14-22, Bank of Canada.
    4. Robert E. Lucas, 2001. "Inflation and Welfare," International Economic Association Series, in: Axel Leijonhufvud (ed.), Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy, chapter 4, pages 96-142, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Leandro Medina & Mr. Friedrich Schneider, 2018. "Shadow Economies Around the World: What Did We Learn Over the Last 20 Years?," IMF Working Papers 2018/017, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    8. Ryuzo Miyao, 2005. "Use Of The Money Supply In The Conduct Of Japan'S Monetary Policy: Re‐Examining The Time‐Series Evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 165-187, June.
    9. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tomura, Hajime, 2017. "Fiscal cost to exit quantitative easing: the case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-11.
    10. Akira Otani & Takashi Suzuki, 2008. "Background to the High Level of Banknotes in Circulation and Demand Deposits," Bank of Japan Review Series 08-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    11. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Watanabe, Kiyoshi, 2004. "Japanese Demand for M1 and Demand Deposits: Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Evidence from Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(3), pages 47-77, October.
    12. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Rallye Shen, 2015. "2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Results," Discussion Papers 15-4, Bank of Canada.
    13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    14. Kuo, Biing-Shen, 1998. "Test for partial parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 337-368, June.
    15. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Angelika Welte, 2018. "2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report," Discussion Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    16. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tanaka, Migiwa, 2018. "How do we choose to pay using evolving retail payment technologies? Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 85-99.
    17. Hiroshi FUJIKI, 2019. "How do we choose to pay using evolving retail payment technologies? Some additional results from Japan," Working Papers e135, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    18. Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-362, March.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    20. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tanaka, Migiwa, 2014. "Currency demand, new technology, and the adoption of electronic money: Micro evidence from Japan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 5-8.
    21. Chang, Yoosoon & Park, Joon Y. & Song, Kevin, 2006. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 703-739, August.
    22. Claire Greene & Shaun O'Brien & Scott Schuh, 2017. "U. S. consumer cash use, 2012 and 2015: an introduction to the Diary of Consumer Payment Choice," Research Data Report 17-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    23. Yukinobu Kitamura & Mahito Oomori & Kenta Nishida, 2010. "The Effects of Electronic Money on Money Demand: Time Series Analysis," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-114, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    24. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    25. Makoto Saito, 2021. "Central Banknotes and Black Markets: The Case of the Japanese Economy During and Immediately After World War II," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Strong Money Demand in Financing War and Peace, pages 25-56, Springer.
    26. Ben Fung & Kim Huynh & Gerald Stuber, 2015. "The Use of Cash in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2015(Spring), pages 45-56.
    27. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    28. Esselink, Henk & Gijsel, Lola Hernandez-van, 2017. "The use of cash by households in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    29. Jobst, Clemens & Stix, Helmut, 2017. "Doomed to Disappear? The Surprising Return of Cash Across Time and Across Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 12327, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    30. Ryuzo Miyao, 2002. "Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?," Discussion Paper Series 127, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saito, Makoto & 齊藤, 誠, 2020. "Long-run mild deflation under fiscal unsustainability in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 703, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Rösl, Gerhard & Seitz, Franz, 2021. "Cash and crises: No surprises by the virus," IMFS Working Paper Series 150, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    3. Hiroshi Fujiki, 2020. "The use of noncash payment methods for regular payments and the household demand for cash: evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 719-765, October.
    4. Solomon H. Tarlin, 2021. "The Future of Cash," Community Affairs Discussion Paper 21-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Anton Schautzer & Helmut Stix, 2019. "Approaching 20 years of euro cash in Austria: What has changed, and what’s next?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1-Q2/19, pages 99-112.
    6. Tamás Végsõ, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of the Changes in Cash Demand in Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(1), pages 90-118.
    7. Anton Schautzer & Helmut Stix, 2019. "Approaching 20 years of euro cash in Austria: What has changed, and what’s next?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 19/Q1-Q2, pages 99-112.
    8. Fujiki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Cash demand and financial literacy: A case study using Japanese survey data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    2. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Tomura, Hajime, 2017. "Fiscal cost to exit quantitative easing: the case of Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2008. "An Extremely Low Interest Rate Policy and the Shape of the Japanese Money Demand Function: A Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 70689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hiroshi Fujiki, 2020. "The use of noncash payment methods for regular payments and the household demand for cash: evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 719-765, October.
    5. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & PÉPIN, Dominique & MILLER, Stephen M., 2019. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to central and eastern European countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 33-45.
    6. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2019. "How Large is the Demand for Money at the ZLB? Evidence from Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-465, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    8. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    9. Fujiki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Cash demand and financial literacy: A case study using Japanese survey data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    11. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Spinelli, Franco, 2000. "The long-run stability of the demand for money: Italy 1861-1996," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 717-739, June.
    12. Hans-Eggert Reimers & Friedrich Schneider & Franz Seitz, 2020. "Payment Innovations, the Shadow Economy and Cash Demand of Households in Euro Area Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 8574, CESifo.
    13. Pinar Evrim-Mandaci & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Efe Caglar Cagli, 2011. "Stock and bond market interactions with two regime shifts: evidence from Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(18), pages 1355-1368.
    14. Ryuzo Miyao, 2002. "Liquidity Trap and the Stability of Money Demand: Is Japan Really Trapped at the Zero Bound?," Discussion Paper Series 127, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    15. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Dominique Pépin & Stephen Miller, 2016. "The micro-foundations of an open economy money demand: An application to the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Papers hal-01348842, HAL.
    16. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & Pepin, Dominique, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.
    17. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2007. "Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 548-566.
    18. Getu Hailu & Alex Maynard & Alfons Weersink, 2015. "Empirical analysis of corn and soybean basis in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(51), pages 5491-5509, November.
    19. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    20. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tctokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.