IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjapxx/v12y2007i4p548-566.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

Author

Listed:
  • Byron Gangnes
  • Craig Parsons

Abstract

The few existing empirical studies of US–Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a potentially more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. Results are mixed, with evidence in several sectors of a possible change in import behavior following market-opening trade agreements, while in other cases no significant impact can be detected.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2007. "Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 548-566.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:548-566
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860701594277
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860701594277
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13547860701594277?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Baker, Arnold & Gross, Felicia & Tower, Edward, 1997. "Super 301 trade sanctions: An empirical investigation of the wood products case," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 39-55.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Robert Corker, 1989. "External Adjustment and the Strong Yen: Recent Japanese Experience," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 464-493, June.
    5. Krishna, Kala & Roy, Suddhasatwa & Thursby, Marie, 1998. "Implementing Market Access," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 529-544, November.
      • Krishna, K & Thursby, M & Roy, S, 1996. "Implementing Market Access," Papers 96-011, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
      • Krishna, K & Roy, S & Thursby, M, 1996. "Implementaing Market Access," Papers 96-003, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
      • Kala Krishna & Suddhasatwa Roy & Marie Thursby, 1996. "Implementing Market Access," NBER Working Papers 5593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Quintos, Carmela E & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Parameter Constancy in Cointegrating Regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 675-706.
    7. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2001. "An empirical analysis on the stability of Japan's aggregate import demand function," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 135-144, April.
    8. Stone, Joe A, 1979. "Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports: Industry Estimates for the U.S., the E.E.C. and Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 306-312, May.
    9. Noland, Marcus, 1997. "Chasing Phantoms: The Political Economy of USTR," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 365-387, July.
    10. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    11. Kimberly Ann Elliott & Thomas O. Bayard, 1994. "Reciprocity and Retaliation in U.S. Trade Policy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 78, October.
    12. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    13. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
    14. Laura D'Andrea Tyson, 1992. "Who's Bashing Whom? Trade Conflict in High-Technology Industries," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 86, October.
    15. Greaney, Theresa M., 1996. "Import now! An analysis of market-share voluntary import expansions (VIEs)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 149-163, February.
    16. Ceglowski, Janet, 1996. "The recent behavior of Japanese imports: A disaggregated analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 443-457, December.
    17. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "A Tariff-Growth Paradox? Protection's Impact the World Around 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 8459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-116, February.
    19. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    21. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2002. "Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements," Working Papers 200217, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    22. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    23. Gallaway, Michael P. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2003. "Short-run and long-run industry-level estimates of U.S. Armington elasticities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 49-68, March.
    24. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
    25. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
    26. Douglas A. Irwin, 1994. "Managed Trade: The Case Against Import Targets," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51697, September.
    27. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    28. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "Estimates of a traditional aggregate import demand model for five countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 435-439, April.
    29. Dick, Andrew R., 1994. "Accounting for semiconductor industry dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 35-51, March.
    30. C. Fred Bergsten & Marcus Noland, 1993. "Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 34, October.
    31. Maddala,G. S. & Kim,In-Moo, 1999. "Unit Roots, Cointegration, and Structural Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521587822.
    32. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    2. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    3. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    4. Kuo, Biing-Shen, 1998. "Test for partial parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 337-368, June.
    5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    6. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    7. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Aggregate Import Demand Function for Japan: A Cointegration Re-investigation," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 363-377.
    8. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Saito, Makoto, 2012. "On the comparison of alternative specifications for money demand: The case of extremely low interest rate regimes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 454-471.
    9. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    10. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    11. Arize, Augustine C. & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J., 2008. "Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 33-44.
    12. Saten Kumar, 2014. "Money demand income elasticity in advanced and developing countries: new evidence from meta-analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(16), pages 1873-1882, June.
    13. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    14. Luis A. Rivas & José de Jesús Rojas, 2001. "Precios relativos, inflación subyacente y metas de inflación: un análisis para Nicaragua," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 355-380, julio-sep.
    15. Fabrizio Casalin & Enzo Dia, 2016. "The dynamic interrelation between external finance and bank credit," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 243-259, January.
    16. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2008. "An Extremely Low Interest Rate Policy and the Shape of the Japanese Money Demand Function: A Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 70689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    18. Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2014. "Modelling long run comovements in equity markets: A flexible approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 288-295.
    19. Daniel G. Garcés Díaz, 2001. "Determinación del nivel de precios y la dinámica inflacionaria en México," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 241-269, julio-sep.
    20. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Spinelli, Franco, 2000. "The long-run stability of the demand for money: Italy 1861-1996," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 717-739, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:548-566. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.