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Have US-Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?

  • Byron Gangnes

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Craig Parsons

    (Department of Economics, Yokohama National University)

The few existing empirical studies of U.S.-Japan trade agreements have relied primarily on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods. We conduct a more powerful test by evaluating agreements in the context of well-specified econometric models. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where a trade agreement may cause a structural break in the cointegrating vector. In several cases, we find evidence that market-opening trade agreements may have increased the volume of Japanese imports, while other agreements appear to have had no significant impact.

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File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_04-3.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Paper provided by University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 200403.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200403
Note: Also Singapore Management University Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 08-2004, March 2004
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  1. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
  3. Greaney, Theresa M., 1996. "Import now! An analysis of market-share voluntary import expansions (VIEs)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 149-163, February.
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  5. Baker, Arnold & Gross, Felicia & Tower, Edward, 1997. "Super 301 trade sanctions: An empirical investigation of the wood products case," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 39-55.
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-64, May.
  8. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  9. C. Fred Bergsten & Marcus Noland, 1993. "Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 34, December.
  10. Kala Krishna & Suddhasatwa Roy & Marie Thursby, 1996. "Implementing Market Access," NBER Working Papers 5593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Krishna, K & Thursby, M & Roy, S, 1996. "Implementing Market Access," Papers 96-011, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
    • Krishna, K & Roy, S & Thursby, M, 1996. "Implementaing Market Access," Papers 96-003, Purdue University, Krannert School of Management - Center for International Business Education and Research (CIBER).
  11. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
  12. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Matsubayashi, Yoichi, 2001. "An empirical analysis on the stability of Japan's aggregate import demand function," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 135-144, April.
  13. Robert Corker, 1989. "External Adjustment and the Strong Yen: Recent Japanese Experience," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 464-493, June.
  14. Stone, Joe A, 1979. "Price Elasticities of Demand for Imports and Exports: Industry Estimates for the U.S., the E.E.C. and Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 306-12, May.
  15. Gallaway, Michael P. & McDaniel, Christine A. & Rivera, Sandra A., 2003. "Short-run and long-run industry-level estimates of U.S. Armington elasticities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 49-68, March.
  16. Marquez, Jaime, 1999. "Long-Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 102-16, February.
  17. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  18. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  19. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "A Tariff-Growth Paradox? Protection's Impact the World Around 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 8459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "Estimates of a traditional aggregate import demand model for five countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 435-439, April.
  21. Quintos, Carmela E & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Parameter Constancy in Cointegrating Regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 675-706.
  22. Marcus Noland, 1997. "Chasing Phantoms: The Political Economy of USTR," Working Paper Series WP97-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  23. Laura D'Andrea Tyson, 1992. "Who's Bashing Whom? Trade Conflict in High-Technology Industries," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 86, December.
  24. Dick, Andrew R., 1994. "Accounting for semiconductor industry dynamics," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 35-51, March.
  25. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2002. "Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements," Working Papers 200217, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  26. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
  27. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
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