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Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Byron Gangnes

    (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

  • Craig Parsons

    (Department of Economics, Yokohama National University)

Abstract

Empirical evaluations of trade agreements often rely on descriptive statistics or univariate time series methods to detect subsequent changes in trade flows. We conduct a more satisfactory test by evaluating an agreement in the context of a structural econometric model. Consistent with trade theory, import demand is modeled as a cointegrating relationship with income and relative price variables, where trade agreements may cause structural changes in cointegrating vectors. This approach is applied to study the effect of several U.S.-Japan market-opening trade agreements; in three of seven industries we find evidence of structural change that may be related to trade agreements.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2002. "Using Structural Break Tests to Evaluate Policy Change: The Impact of U.S.-Japan Trade Agreements," Working Papers 200217, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:200217
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_02-17.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 222-259, April.
    3. Greaney, Theresa M., 1996. "Import now! An analysis of market-share voluntary import expansions (VIEs)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 149-163, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Byron Gangnes & Craig Parsons, 2007. "Have US–Japan Trade Agreements Made a Difference?," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 548-566.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural break tests; U.S.-Japan trade agreements; import promotion policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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