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An Economic Indicator for the State of the Economy in the Southeastern U.S

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  • Miller, Tom W.
  • Sabbarese, Donald
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    Abstract

    A state space model is constructed so that a state variable representing the unobservable state of the economy is estimated from information on new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery time, and finished inventory obtained from the purchasing managers’ sur-vey for Georgia. This state variable captures the co-movements of the time series used in its construction and serves as an economic indicator for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Caro-lina, South Carolina, and Tennessee. Even though this economic indicator is estimated from information from the purchasing managers’ survey on manufacturing activity for just Geor-gia, it produces reasonable forecasts for the real growth rates of the gross domestic products of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee for 1991 through 2008.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/143761
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Mid-Continent Regional Science Association in its journal Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy.

    Volume (Year): 42 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:jrapmc:143761

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    Web page: http://jrap-journal.org/index.htm
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    Related research

    Keywords: Industrial Organization; Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 61-69.
    2. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Research Paper 9124, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    6. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
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