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Analyzing and Forecasting Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Factor Model for Singapore

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  • Hwee Kwan Chow

    ()
    (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)

  • Keen Meng Choy

    ()
    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University)

Abstract

A dynamic factor model is applied to a large panel dataset of Singapore’s macroeconomic variables and global economic indicators with the initial objective of analyzing business cycles in a small open economy. The empirical results suggest that four common factors are present in the quarterly time series, which can broadly be interpreted as world, regional, electronics and domestic economic cycles. The estimated factor model explains well the observed fluctuations in real economic activity and price inflation, leading us to use it in forecasting Singapore’s business cycles. We find that the forecasts generated by the factors are generally more accurate than the predictions of univariate models and vector autoregressions that employ leading indicators.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 05-2009.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:05-2009

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Keywords: Business cycle; Dynamic factor model; Forecasting; Singapore;

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Cited by:
  1. Mapa, Dennis S. & Simbulan, Maria Christina, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting Movements of the Philippine Economy using the Dynamic Factor Models (DFM)," MPRA Paper 54478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2012. "Constructing a real-time coincident recession index: an application to the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2012-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  3. Mendoza, Liu & Morales, Daniel, 2013. "Construyendo un índice coincidente de recesión: Una aplicación para la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 26, pages 81-100.

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