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Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro Area?

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  • Valentina Colombo

    ()
    (University of Padova)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates with a number of Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by Baker, Bloom and Davis (2013) jointly with a set of standard indicators of aggregate price and the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas. According to our SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the European industrial production and prices of −0.12% and −0.06%, respectively. The contribution of the US uncertainty shock on the European aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an Euro area-specific uncertainty shock.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno" in its series "Marco Fanno" Working Papers with number 0160.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0160

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Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty; US-Euro area spillovers; Structural Vector Autoregressions.;

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  1. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  2. Jon Cohen & Michelle Alexopoulos, 2009. "Uncertain Times, Uncertain Measures," 2009 Meeting Papers 1211, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2008. "Should the Euro Area Be Run as a Closed Economy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 138-45, May.
  4. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
  5. Gabriela Nodari, 2013. "Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty and Credit Spreads in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0170, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  6. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  7. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2006. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1710, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Nicolas Groshenny, 2013. "Uncertainty Shocks and Unemployment Dynamics: An Analysis of Post-WWII U.S. Recessions," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0166, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  9. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "The international transmission of volatility shocks: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 463, Bank of England.
  10. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Gabriela Nodari, 2013. "Financial Regulation Policy Uncertainty and Credit Spreads in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0170, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  2. Ermi̇şoğlu, Ergun & Kanik, Bi̇rol, 2013. "Türkiye Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği Endeksi
    [Turkish Economic Policy Uncertainty Index]
    ," MPRA Paper 49920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Pierre Siklos, 2014. "The Ill Wind that Blows from Europe: Implications for Canada's Economy," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 402, March.

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