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A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price

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  • Janine Aron

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

  • John Muellbauer

    (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)

  • Coen Pretorius

    (South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, but this fact is ignored in most work on consumer price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the consumer price index (excluding mortgage interest rates, or CPIX) for South Africa are modeled separately and forecast, four quarters ahead. The method combines equilibrium correction models in a rich multivariate form with the use of stochastic trends estimated by the Kalman filter to capture structural breaks and institutional change. This research is of considerable practical use for monetary policy, allowing sectoral sources of inflation to be identified. Aggregating the forecasts of the components with appropriate weights from the overall index, potentially indicates the gains to be made in forecasting the idiosyncratic sectoral behaviour of prices, over forecasting the overall consumer price index.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0409/0409054.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0409054.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 28 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409054

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 63
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809, April.
  2. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 135-149.
  3. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 3595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Johannes Fedderke & Chandana Kularatne & Martine Mariotti, 2005. "Mark-up Pricing in South African Industry," Working Papers 01, Economic Research Southern Africa.
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  7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  8. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Personal and corporate saving in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-21, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  9. J.W. Fedderke & E. Schaling, 2005. "Modelling Inflation In South Africa: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(1), pages 79-92, 03.
  10. Antoni Espasa & Rebeca Albacete, 2004. "Econometric Modelling For Short-Term Inflation Forecasting In The Emu," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws034309, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  12. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
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  14. Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2000. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  17. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  18. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 657-84, November.
  19. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2002:i:05:p:673-700_03 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial Liberalization, Consumption and Debt in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  21. Zellner, Arnold & Chen, Bin, 2001. "Bayesian Modeling Of Economies And Data Requirements," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(05), pages 673-700, November.
  22. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409056, EconWPA.
  23. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996. "Inflation and the Distribution of Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 5793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Christopher A. Sims, 1996. "Macroeconomics and Methodology," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 105-120, Winter.
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Cited by:
  1. Babecký, Jan & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2009. "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2009-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction Of Cpix Data For Forecasting And Modelling In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(5), pages 884-912, December.
  4. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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