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Modelling Inflation In South Africa: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis

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Author Info
J.W. FEDDERKE
E. SCHALING

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Abstract

We employ an expectations augmented Phillips curve framework to investigate the link between inflation, unit labour costs, the output gap, the real exchange rate and inflation expectations. Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find evidence consistent with mark-up behaviour of output prices over unit labour costs. Most importantly, we find that the mark-up in the South African economy is much higher than in the U.S. For South Africa we find a markup of about 30 per cent: three times as high as the 10 per cent markup found for the U.S. Copyright 2005 Economic Society of South Africa.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00006.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Economic Society of South Africa in its journal South African Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 73 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 79-92
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Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:73:y:2005:i:1:p:79-92

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  1. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade & Franz Krige Siebrits & Elizabeth Wambach Niedermeier, 2004. "The determinants of inflation in South Africa: An econometric analysis," Research Papers RP_143, African Economic Research Consortium. [Downloadable!]
  3. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2009. "Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 7183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.


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