Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inlation process
AbstractEmpirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input costs. Such models assume that the steady-state price-cost markup is constant, but recent research suggests that this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for permanent shifts in the markup factor through estimating an inflation equation that includes a time-varying intercept. The model suggests that a reduction in the markup contributed to disinflation in the Euro area during the period 1981-2000.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2004/9.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 28 May 2004
Date of revision:
Note: This is a revised version of ECB Working Paper 306 (Bowdler and Jansen (2004)), which was written while the second author was a Research Visitor to DG Research, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, from February through June 2003. The work benefitted greatly from a one week visit from the first author to the same institution in May 2003. The first author acknowledges financial support from a British Academy post-doctoral fellowship. The revision has been carried out while the second author was visiting Department of Economics, University of California San Diego. The hospitality and excellent working conditions o ered there are gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful for the constructive criticism provided by an anonymous ECB referee, and for comments from James Hamilton, Heino Bohn Nielsen and seminar participants at Norges Bank, University of California San Diego and Brunel University. The views expressed in this paper represent exclusively the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank or Norges Bank.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postboks 1179 Sentrum, 0107 Oslo
Phone: +47 22 31 60 00
Fax: +47 22 41 31 05
Web page: http://www.norges-bank.no/
More information through EDIRC
inflation; price-cost markup; cointegration; time-varying intercept; dynamic modelling.;
Other versions of this item:
- Christopher Bowdler & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inflation process," Working Paper Series 4004, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 11 May 2004.
- Bowdler, Christopher & Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inflation process," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4s75w541, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Christopher Bowdler & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inflation process," Economics Papers 2004-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Christopher Bowdler & Eilev S. Jansen, 2004. "Testing for a time-varying price-cost markup in the Euro area inflation process," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-07-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2004-07-11 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2004-07-11 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2004-07-11 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jansen, Eilev S., 2004.
"Modelling inflation in the euro area,"
Working Paper Series
0322, European Central Bank.
- Robert S. Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari, 2000.
"Market Power and Inflation,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
277, CESifo Group Munich.
- David Bowman, 2003. "Market power and inflation," International Finance Discussion Papers 783, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995.
"Modelling Inflation in Australia,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
- Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-23, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Economies and Australia," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 119, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
- Gwin, Carl R & Taylor, Beck A, 2004. "The Role of Search Costs in Determining the Relationship between Inflation and Profit Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 139-49, February.
- Banerjee, A. & Russell, B., 1999.
"The Relationship Between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Plus One Economies,"
Economics Series Working Papers
99205, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Banerjee, A. & Russell, B., 2000. "The Relationship between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 plus One Economies," Economics Working Papers eco2000/7, European University Institute.
- Anindya Banerjee & Bill Russell, 2000. "The Relationship Between the Markup and Inflation in the G7 Plus One Economies," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0242, Econometric Society.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 2003.
"Globalization and global disinflation,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78.
- Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112.
- Bowdler, Christopher & Jansen, Eilev S., 2004. "A markup model of inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0306, European Central Bank.
- Allan W. Gregory & Alfred A. Haug & Nicoletta Lomuto, 2004. "Mixed signals among tests for cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 89-98.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999.
"Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Economics Working Papers 341, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
- Nath, Hiranya K., 2004. "Inflation and relative price variability: short-run vs. long-run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 363-369, March.
- Benabou, Roland, 1992. "Inflation and Efficiency in Search Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 299-329, April.
- Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1993.
"Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
4267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eilev S. Jansen, 2004.
"Modelling inflation in the Euro Area,"
2004/10, Norges Bank.
- Nir Klein, 2011. "South Africa," IMF Working Papers 11/204, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.