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Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa

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Author Info
Aron, Janine
Muellbauer, John

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Abstract

Forecasting models for output are presented to throw light on monetary transmission. Recent research finds multistep forecasting superior to recursive forecasting from a VAR model when structural breaks are present; there are important political and policy regime breaks in South Africa. The equilibrium correction models have a four-quarter ahead forecast horizon, appropriate for measuring interest rate effects. A stochastic trend measures underlying shifts in productivity and other supply side trends. The inclusion of important monetary policy regime shifts, which altered the output response to interest rates, and the control for other structural changes (e.g. trade liberalization), address the Lucas critique in forecasting output growth. There are important and persistent effects of high real interest rates, which significantly constrained growth in the 1990s, and significant potential growth benefits from fiscal discipline. South African growth appears to have become more responsive to the exchange rate with increasing trade openness in the 1990s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3595.

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Date of creation: Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3595

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Related research
Keywords: growth; monetary policy transmission; multi-step forecasting; structural breaks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guillaume Chevillon, 2006. "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 257, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "A Comparison of Multi-step GDP Forecasts for South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 212, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Salinas, Gonzalo & Aksoy, Ataman, 2006. "Growth before and after trade liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4062, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2004. "Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409056, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Torfinn Harding and Jørn Rattsø, 2005. "The barrier model of productivity growth: South Africa," Discussion Papers 425, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher Bowdler, 2004. "Openness and the output-inflation tradeoff," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 7, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Guillaume Chevillon, 2005. "Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø, 2004. "Ramsey model of barriers to growth and skill-biased income distribution in South Africa," Working Paper Series 4604, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 07 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
  10. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2006. "Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5831, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 6992, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Benjamin Smit, 2004. "A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa," Development and Comp Systems 0409055, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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