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Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

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  • JOHN MUELLBAUER

Abstract

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.

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  • John Muellbauer, 2015. "Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 51-58, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:s1:p:51-58
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12190
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valérie Chauvin & John Muellbauer, 2018. "Consumption, household portfolios and the housing market in France," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 500-501-5, pages 157-178.
    2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 637-661, October.
    3. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England.
    4. Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Property markets and financial stability," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 64.
    5. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 533-551, May.
    6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages 161-196, October.
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    8. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony & Duca, John V, 2011. "Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in US House Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 8361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    10. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
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    14. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Martin Browning & Mette Gørtz & Søren Leth‐Petersen, 2013. "Housing Wealth and Consumption: A Micro Panel Study," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 401-428, May.
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    3. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mohammed, Mikidadu, 2021. "Financial regimes and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Christopher G. Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2021. "Housing and Commodity Investment Booms in a Small Open Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(317), pages 212-242, June.
    6. Rabah Arezki & Thorsten Beck & Robert Deyoung & John V. Duca & Prakash Loungani & Anthony Murphy, 2015. "Conference on Housing, Stability, and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 1-11, March.
    7. David C. Ling & Yan Lu & Sugata Ray, 2021. "How do Personal Real Estate Transactions Affect Productivity and Risk Taking? Evidence from Professional Asset Managers," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 7-40, March.

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