Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom

Contents:

Author Info

  • Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

It is widely perceived that credit supply conditions faced by UK consumers, particularly in the mortgage market, have been liberalised since the late 1970s, with implications for the housing market and consumer spending. This paper examines quarterly microdata from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders to learn about changes in credit conditions from loan to value ratios (LVRs) and loan to income ratios (LIRs) of first-time buyers (classified by region and age). It combines data on the proportions of high LVR and high LIR loans with aggregate information on UK consumer credit and mortgage debt to give ten quarterly series for 1975-2001. These are modelled in a ten-equation system. A comprehensive set of economic and demographic influences on the demand and supply of credit, applying relevant sign restrictions, are controlled for. A single time-varying index of credit conditions captures the common variation in the ten credit indicators which cannot be explained by the economic and demographic controls. The broad coverage of credit market indicators and thorough investigation of economic forces driving the credit market should make the resulting credit conditions index more robust than previous estimates. The index increases in the 1980s, peaking towards the end of the decade. It retraces part of this rise in the early 1990s, before increasing again to levels, for one of the two measures, exceeding the previous peak. The index is useful in modelling consumption and the housing market, and in interpreting current monetary conditions. An important by-product of the paper is the model for consumer credit and mortgage debt developed here.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2006/WP314.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 314.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:314

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
  2. Robert G. Murphy, 1997. "Household Debt and Aggregate Consumption Expenditures," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 386, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Tamim Bayoumi, 1992. "Financial Deregulation and Household Saving," Bank of England working papers 5, Bank of England.
  4. Kent, Richard J, 1980. "Credit Rationing and the Home Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 488-501, August.
  5. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," NBER Working Papers 8314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Brito, Dagobert L & Hartley, Peter R, 1995. "Consumer Rationality and Credit Cards," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 400-433, April.
  7. Franklin Allen & Anthony M. Santomero, 1996. "The Theory of Financial Intermediation," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-32, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Bennett, Paul & Peach, Richard & Peristiani, Stavros, 2001. "Structural Change in the Mortgage Market and the Propensity to Refinance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 955-75, November.
  9. Paul S. Calem & Michael B. Gordy & Loretta J. Mester, 2005. "Switching costs and adverse selection in the market for credit cards: new evidence," Working Papers 05-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Cox, Donald & Jappelli, Tullio, 1993. "The Effect of Borrowing Constraints on Consumer Liabilities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 197-213, May.
  11. Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2000. "Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 239-263, May.
  12. Chris Carroll & Wendy Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 165-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bayoumi, Tamim A, 1993. "Financial Deregulation and Consumption in the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(3), pages 536-39, August.
  14. Chrystal, K Alec & Mizen, Paul, 2005. "A Dynamic Model of Money, Credit, and Consumption: A Joint Model for the UK Household Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 119-43, February.
  15. Scott, A., 1996. "Consumption, "Credit Crunches" and Financial Deregulation," Economics Series Working Papers 99181, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  16. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October.
  17. Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Consumption And Credit: A Model Of Time-Varying Liquidity Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 434-447, August.
  18. John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  19. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price, 2002. "Financial liberalisation and consumers' expenditure: 'FLIB' re-examined," Bank of England working papers 157, Bank of England.
  20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  21. Antzoulatos, Angelos A, 1994. "Credit Rationing and Rational Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 182-202, May.
  22. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "A Theory of the Consumption Function, with and without Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 23-45, Summer.
  23. Herring, Richard J, 1999. "Credit Risk and Financial Instability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 63-79, Autumn.
  24. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Williams, Geoffrey, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Financial Liberalization: The Case of United Kingdom Consumption," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-197, April.
  25. Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland, 1994. "Consumption, Forward Looking Behaviour and Financial Deregulation," Working Papers Series 94/5, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  26. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
  27. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  28. Anderson, Gordon J & Hendry, David F, 1984. "An Econometric Model of United Kingdom Building Societies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(3), pages 185-210, August.
  29. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
  30. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future," SERC Discussion Papers 0049, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  2. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano & Marco di Maggio, 2008. "Households’ Indebtedness and Financial Fragility," CSEF Working Papers 208, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 09 Sep 2010.
  3. Avner Offer, 2008. "British Manual Workers: From Producers to Consumers, c. 1950–2000," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _074, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:314. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.