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Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room

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  • Muellbauer, John
  • Williams, David M

Abstract

Changes in credit market architecture are an important but unobservable structural influence on economic activity. For Australian data, we model non-price credit supply conditions within equilibrium correction models of consumption, house prices, mortgage credit and housing equity withdrawal. Our "latent interactive variable equation system" (LIVES) employs a single latent variable to capture evolutionary shifts (in credit conditions) that affect not only the intercept of each equation, but also interact with key economic variables. We show that credit conditions impact on consumption by: (i) lowering the mortgage downpayment constraint facing young households; (ii) introducing a housing collateral channel from house prices to real activity; and (iii) facilitating intertemporal consumption smoothing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8386.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8386

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Keywords: Consumption; credit conditions; house prices; wealth;

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References

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  1. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 647, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. David M. Williams, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 432, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
  5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Economics Series Working Papers 487, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2000. "Financial Liberalization, Consumption and Debt in South Africa," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Carl Schwartz & Christine Lewis & David Norman & Tim Hampton, 2008. "Factors Influencing Housing Equity Withdrawal: Evidence from a Microeconomic Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(267), pages 421-433, December.
  8. Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economics Papers 125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  9. Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko, 2009. "Consumption, Land Prices and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 7269, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
  11. John Muellbauer & Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," Economics Series Working Papers 276, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  12. David M. Williams, 2010. "Consumption, wealth and credit liberalisation in Australia," Economics Series Working Papers 492, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Gianni La Cava & John Simon, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Constraints in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 40-60, 03.
  14. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Meen, Geoffrey & Andrew, Mark, 1998. "On the Aggregate Housing Market Implications of Labour Market Change," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(4), pages 393-419, September.
  16. Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970-2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages S96-S103, 08.
  17. Laurence Boone & Nathalie Girouard & Isabelle Wanner, 2001. "Financial Market Liberalisation, Wealth and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 308, OECD Publishing.
  18. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March.
  19. Buckley, Robert & Ermisch, John, 1982. "Government Policy and House Prices in the United Kingdom: An Econometric Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 44(4), pages 273-304, November.
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Cited by:
  1. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?," Economics Series Working Papers 623, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2013. "Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59, pages S161-S196, October.
  3. Walentin, Karl, 2013. "Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads," Working Paper Series 275, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
  4. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101 Bank for International Settlements.

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