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Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads

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  • Walentin, Karl

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

How do aggregate quantities at the business cycle frequency respond to shocks to the spread between residential mortgage rates and government bonds? Using a structural VAR approach, we find that mortgage spread shocks impact the real economy by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes: a 100 basis point decline in the spread causes a peak increase in consumption, residential investment and GDP by 1.6 percent, 6.2 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. These effects are magnified when the policy rate is held fixed, as was the case in the US during the recent implementation of unconventional monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Walentin, Karl, 2013. "Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads," Working Paper Series 275, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0275
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sources of business cycles; unconventional monetary policy; credit supply; house prices; financial frictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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