IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v96y2020i314p225-251.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

MARTIN Has Its Place: A Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Ballantyne
  • Tom Cusbert
  • Richard Evans
  • Rochelle Guttmann
  • Jonathan Hambur
  • Adam Hamilton
  • Elizabeth Kendall
  • Rachael McCririck
  • Gabriela Nodari
  • Daniel M. Rees

Abstract

This paper introduces MARTIN, the Reserve Bank of Australia's new model of the Australian economy. MARTIN is an economy‐wide model used for forecasting and counterfactual scenario analysis. In contrast to other models used at the Bank (and at many other central banks) which adhere to a narrow theoretical view of how the economy operates, MARTIN is a macroeconometric model that consists of a system of reduced‐form equations built to strike a balance between theoretical rigour and empirical realism. We provide an overview of the model, describe its main equations and demonstrate its responses to various scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Ballantyne & Tom Cusbert & Richard Evans & Rochelle Guttmann & Jonathan Hambur & Adam Hamilton & Elizabeth Kendall & Rachael McCririck & Gabriela Nodari & Daniel M. Rees, 2020. "MARTIN Has Its Place: A Macroeconometric Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 225-251, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:96:y:2020:i:314:p:225-251
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.12531
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-4932.12531
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1475-4932.12531?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tom Cusbert, 2017. "Estimating the NAIRU and the Unemployment Gap," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 13-22, June.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    3. Antràs Pol, 2004. "Is the U.S. Aggregate Production Function Cobb-Douglas? New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-36, April.
    4. Flint Brayton & Thomas Laubach & David L. Reifschneider, 2014. "The FRB/US Model: A Tool for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis," FEDS Notes 2014-04-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Jesper Lindé, 2018. "DSGE models: still useful in policy analysis?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 269-286.
    6. Ryan Fox & Peter Tulip, 2014. "Is Housing Overvalued?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Jonathan Hambur & Gianni La Cava, 2018. "Do Interest Rates Affect Business Investment? Evidence from Australian Company-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 815-849, June.
    9. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Olivier Gervais & Marc-André Gosselin, 2014. "Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model," Technical Reports 102, Bank of Canada.
    11. Richard Evans & Angus Moore & Daniel M Rees, 2019. "The Cyclical Behaviour of the Labour Force Participation Rate in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 94-106, March.
    12. David Norman & Anthony Richards, 2012. "The Forecasting Performance of Single Equation Models of Inflation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(280), pages 64-78, March.
    13. Ross Hutchings & Michael Kouparitsas, 2012. "Modelling Aggregate Labour Demand," Treasury Working Papers 2012-02, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Dec 2012.
    14. Veronica John Muellbauer & Veronica David M Williams, 2012. "Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 95-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. LAURA BERGER‐THOMSON & ELAINE CHUNG & REBECCA McKIBBIN, 2010. "Estimating Marginal Propensities to Consume in Australia Using Micro Data," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 49-60, September.
    16. Peter Tulip, 2014. "The Effect of the Mining Boom on the Australian Economy," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 17-22, December.
    17. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoko Hara & Satoko Kojima & Yoichi Ueno & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2011. "The Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM): 2011 Version," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-11, Bank of Japan.
    18. Diego May & Gabriela Nodari & Daniel M. Rees, 2020. "Wealth and Consumption in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(1), pages 105-117, March.
    19. Angelini, Elena & Bokan, Nikola & Christoffel, Kai & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Zimic, Srečko, 2019. "Introducing ECB-BASE: The blueprint of the new ECB semi-structural model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2315, European Central Bank.
    20. Lynne Cockerell & Steven Pennings, 2007. "Private Business Investment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Elaine Chung & Marion Kohler & Christine Lewis, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-16, September.
    23. Vanessa Rayner & James Bishop, 2013. "Industry Dimensions of the Resource Boom: An Input-Output Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    24. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    25. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "On the future of macroeconomic models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 43-54.
    26. Naohisa Hirakata & Kazutoshi Kan & Akihiro Kanafuji & Yosuke Kido & Yui Kishaba & Tomonori Murakoshi & Takeshi Shinohara, 2019. "The Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM): 2019 version," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    27. Simon Wren-Lewis, 2018. "Ending the microfoundations hegemony," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 55-69.
    28. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2010. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Some New Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 491-503, March.
    29. Adrian Pagan, 2019. "Australian macro-econometric models and their construction - A short history," CAMA Working Papers 2019-50, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Tim Atkin & Gianni La Cava, 2017. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy: How Does It Work?," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 01-08, September.
    31. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    2. Jonathan Kearns & Mike Major & David Norman, 2021. "How Risky Is Australian Household Debt?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 313-330, September.
    3. Eduardo Pol, 2020. "Is the RBA Economic Logic Faulty?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 259-269, September.
    4. Matthew Read, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign‐restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 329-358, September.
    5. Boug, Pål & Brasch, Thomas von & Cappelen, Ådne & Hammersland, Roger & Hungnes, Håvard & Kolsrud, Dag & Skretting, Julia & Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond C., 2023. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Xianglong Liu & Jason Nassios & James Giesecke, 2022. "Oil Supply Shocks and Tax Policy Responses in Australia: Insights from a Dynamic CGE Framework," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-336, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Chris Murphy, 2023. "Fiscal Policy in the COVID‐19 Era," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 42(2), pages 107-152, June.
    8. Nicholas Garvin & Samuel Kurian & Mike Major & David Norman, 2022. "Macrofinancial Stress Testing on Australian Banks," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Isaac Gross & Andrew Leigh, 2022. "Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty‐First Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 271-295, September.
    10. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Benjamin Beckers & Anthony Brassil, 2022. "Inflation Expectations in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 125-135, March.
    12. Fisher, Lance A. & Kingston, Geoffrey, 2022. "Medium-run determinants of real wages in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1098-1107.
    13. Anthony Brassil & Mike Major & Peter Rickards, 2022. "MARTIN Gets a Bank Account: Adding a Banking Sector to the RBA's Macroeconometric Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. James Bishop & Emma Greenland, 2021. "Is the Phillips Curve Still a Curve? Evidence from the Regions," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Elshurafa, Amro M. & Alatawi, Hatem & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Algahtani, Goblan J. & Felder, Frank A., 2022. "Cost, emission, and macroeconomic implications of diesel displacement in the Saudi agricultural sector: Options and policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    16. Kim Nguyen, 2022. "The Real Effects of Debt Covenants: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Chris Murphy, 2020. "Decisions in Designing an Australian Macroeconomic Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 252-270, September.
    18. Gulnara Nolan & Jonathan Hambur & Philip Vermeulen, 2023. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Non-mining Business Investment in Australia? Evidence from BLADE," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Jason Nassios & James Giesecke, 2022. "Property Tax Reform: Implications for Housing Prices and Economic Productivity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-330, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    20. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    21. Timothy Anderson & John Hawkins, 2021. "Modelling the Reserve Bank of Australia's Policy Decisions and the Case for a Negative Cash Rate," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(2), pages 179-189, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boug, Pål & Brasch, Thomas von & Cappelen, Ådne & Hammersland, Roger & Hungnes, Håvard & Kolsrud, Dag & Skretting, Julia & Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond C., 2023. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Naohisa Hirakata & Kazutoshi Kan & Akihiro Kanafuji & Yosuke Kido & Yui Kishaba & Tomonori Murakoshi & Takeshi Shinohara, 2019. "The Quarterly Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM): 2019 version," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    3. David Rodgers & Jonathan Hambur, 2018. "The GFC Investment Tax Break," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Patrick Blagrave & Claudia Godbout & Justin-Damien Guénette & René Lalonde & Nikita Perevalov, 2020. "IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity," Technical Reports 116, Bank of Canada.
    5. Schoder, Christian, 2020. "A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 117-132.
    6. Muellbauer, John, 2018. "The Future of Macroeconomics," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-10, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    7. Ray C. Fair, 2019. "Some Important Macro Points," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2165R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2019.
    8. Isaac Gross & Andrew Leigh, 2022. "Assessing Australian Monetary Policy in the Twenty‐First Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 271-295, September.
    9. Anthony Brassil & Mike Major & Peter Rickards, 2022. "MARTIN Gets a Bank Account: Adding a Banking Sector to the RBA's Macroeconometric Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    11. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, "undated". "An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_942, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Kapur, Muneesh, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies and Transmission Dynamics in India," MPRA Paper 88566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Warwick J McKibbin & Andrew Stoeckel, 2018. "Modelling a complex world: improving macro-models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 329-347.
    14. Ray C. Fair, 2019. "Some Important Macro Points," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2165, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Ozana Nadoveza Jelić & Rafael Ravnik, 2021. "Introducing Policy Analysis Croatian MAcroecoNometric Model (PACMAN)," Surveys 41, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    16. Peter Tulip, 2014. "The Effect of the Mining Boom on the Australian Economy," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 17-22, December.
    17. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    18. John Muellbauer, 2012. "When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.),Property Markets and Financial Stability, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Benati, Luca, 2021. "Leaning against house prices: A structural VAR investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 399-412.
    20. Kevin Lane & Tom Rosewall, 2015. "Firm-level Capacity Utilisation and the Implications for Investment,Labour and Prices," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 9-18, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:96:y:2020:i:314:p:225-251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.