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Russia’s Financial Structure and Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Boris I. Alekhin

    (Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow 125993, Russia)

Abstract

This article is about finance — growth nexus with application to Russia. 57 quarterly observations in 2003-2017 were used to test four popular hypotheses on this subject. The author employed econometric methodology which included vector auto regression (VAR) analysis, stationarity tests, Johansen-Juselius cointegration test, Granger causality test, weak exogeneity tests and variance decomposition. The variables in the our VAR-model are found to be non-stationary and cointegrated. Russia’s economic growth seems to be Granger caused by the proliferation of bank credit to local enterprises and (to a much lesser degree) issuance of shares. In the medium-term prospective the stock market is projected to replace bank finance as a main influence on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris I. Alekhin, 2017. "Russia’s Financial Structure and Economic Growth," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 71-83, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:170506:p:71-83
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Paul Davidson, 2002. "Financial Markets, Money and the Real World," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2467.
    6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    finance; economic growth; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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