Inflation Dynamics in Romania – a New Keynesian Perspective
AbstractWe investigate in this paper the main factors which drive inflation in Romania: inflation persistence, inflation expectations and real economy variables. We estimate a reduced form hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve in order to determine the degree of inertia and the impact of forward looking expectations. As a proxy for real economic activity, we alternatively use the change in the real labour cost, output gap, the capacity utilization rate, the economic sentiment indicator and the unemployment gap. We find that the capacity utilization rate and the unemployment gap are good proxies for the real economic activity. Inflation inertia is more important in explaining CPI inflation than rational expectations confirming the fact that inflation expectations in Romania are still highly adaptive.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Annals of Computational Economics.
Volume (Year): 1 (2008)
Issue (Month): 36 (May)
New Keynesian Phillips Curve; inflation dynamics; GMM estimation; forward looking expectations;
Other versions of this item:
- Nicoleta Ciurila & Bogdan Murarasu, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics in Romania - a New Keynesian Perspective," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 31-38.
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- P00 - Economic Systems - - General - - - General
- P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
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