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Monthly GDP Estimates for Inter-War Britain

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  • Mitchell, J.
  • Solomou, S.
  • Weale, M.

Abstract

We derive monthly and quarterly series of UK GDP for the inter-war period from a set of monthly indicators that were constructed by The Economist at the time. The monthly information is complemented with data for quarterly industrial production, allowing us to employ mixed-frequency methods to produce monthly estimates of GDP and of industrial production. We proceed to illustrate how the new data compare with existing high frequency data and how they can be used to contribute to our understanding of the economic history of the UK in the inter-war period and to draw comparisons between recession profiles in the inter-war and the post-war period.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1155.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 1155.

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Date of creation: 14 Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1155

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Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

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  1. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
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  3. Foreman-Peck, James & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ma, Yue, 2000. "A monthly econometric model of the transmission of the Great Depression between the principal industrial economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 515-544, December.
  4. Broadberry, S N, 1986. "Aggregate Supply in Interwar Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(382), pages 467-81, June.
  5. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  6. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, EconWPA.
  7. Peter Hayes & Paul Turner, 2007. "Estimates of quarterly GDP for the interwar UK economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 569-572.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 925-946, December.
  9. Solomos Solomou & Martin Weale, 1996. "UK national income, 1920-1938: the implications of balanced estimates," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 101-115, 02.
  10. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
  11. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, December.
  12. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  14. Solomou, Solomos & Vartis, Dimitris, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates in Britain, 1920 1930," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 850-859, September.
  15. James Mitchell & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Stephen Wright & Eduardo L. Salazar, 2005. "An Indicator of Monthly GDP and an Early Estimate of Quarterly GDP Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(501), pages F108-F129, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence, 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1018, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  2. Crafts, Nicholas, 2013. "What Does the 1930s’ Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 142, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  3. repec:cge:warwcg:102 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. repec:cge:warwcg:141 is not listed on IDEAS

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