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The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in a Small Open Economy: The Irish Context

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  • Meyler, Aidan

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such as the HICP or wages inflation, are likely to be swamped by these external factors. This paper uses a measure of ‘domestically generated’ inflation (defined as the gap between the services inflation rate and the goods inflation rate), to capture domestic inflationary pressures arising from the labour market. A strong relationship is seen to exist between ‘domestically generated’ inflation and labour market tightness. The results also suggest that the NAIRU may not have varied significantly since 1979, despite the large movements in unemployment over the same period.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "The Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in a Small Open Economy: The Irish Context," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/99
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Lydon, Reamonn & Stuart, Rebecca, 2015. "Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926-2012," CFS Working Paper Series 514, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    2. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    3. Druant, Martine & Vanhala, Juuso & Ktoris, Michalis & Jarvis, Valerie & Bouchet, Muriel & Budnik, Katarzyna & Childs, Claire & Kuttner, Nicole & Spooner, Magdalena & De Mulder, Jan & Bonthuis, Boele &, 2012. "Euro area labour markets and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 138, European Central Bank.
    4. O'Donnell, Nuala, 2005. "Overview of Recent Progress in Macroeconomic Modelling in the Central Bank," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 115-131, October.
    5. Slevin, Geraldine, 2001. "Potential Output and the Output Gap in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/01, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Stefan Gerlach & Reamonn Lydon & Rebecca Stuart, 2016. "Unemployment and inflation in Ireland: 1926–2012," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 10(3), pages 345-364, September.
    7. Task Force of the Monetary Policy Committee of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Euro area labour markets and the crisis," Occasional Paper Series 138, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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