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UK Consumers’ Habits

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  • Ryan Banerjee
  • Nicoletta Batini

Abstract

We follow Fuhrer (2000) in estimating via Maximum Likelihood a log-linear consumption function on UK data. In doing so we consider various habit formation assumptions. We show that a model of purely “external” habits as in Fuhrer (2000) fits the UK data remarkably well, and possibly in a superior way than US data where, according to our estimates, consumers’ habits look more “internal” in that they appear indexed to past average consumption of only a subset of (peer) consumers in the economy, rather than total past per capita consumption. We also find that for about one seventh of UK consumers, current consumption equals current income_a strong violation of the permanent income hypothesis. Embedded in a sticky price-sticky inflation open-economy monetary model, the model that we estimate helps mimic the hump-shaped response of the output gap to income and interest rate shocks observed in the UK. Estimates of output Euler equations for the UK using a similar method agree with our general results. The consumption and output models that we estimate forecast significantly better than unrestricted open-economy VARs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England in its series Discussion Papers with number 13.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mpc:wpaper:13

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References

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  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
  7. Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P Millard, 2001. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Bank of England working papers 149, Bank of England.
  8. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1993. "Inflation persistence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine, 2004. "Robust Control Rules to Shield Against Indeterminacy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 339, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenzo Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2006. "Monetary Policy under Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and External Habits: An International Empirical Comparison," Working Papers 97, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  3. Flamini Alessandro, 2012. "Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 381-408.
  4. Lavan Mahadeva & Alex Muscatelli, 2005. "National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 14, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  5. Flamini, Alessandro, 2007. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1113-1150, November.
  6. Choudhary, M. Ali & Levine, Paul, 2006. "Idle worship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 77-83, January.

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