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Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas

Author

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  • Jin Xisong

    (Banque centrale du Luxembourg, 2, boulevard Royal L-2983 Luxembourg, Luxembourg)

  • Lehnert Thorsten

    (Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg)

Abstract

Previous research has focused on the importance of modeling the multivariate distribution for optimal portfolio allocation and active risk management. However, existing dynamic models are not easily applied to high-dimensional problems due to the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we extend the framework of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation/Equicorrelation and an extreme value approach into a series of Dynamic Conditional Elliptical Copulas. We investigate risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for passive portfolios and dynamic optimal portfolios using Mean-Variance and ES criteria for a sample of US stocks over a period of 10 years. Our results suggest that (1) Modeling the marginal distribution is important for dynamic high-dimensional multivariate models. (2) Neglecting the dynamic dependence in the copula causes over-aggressive risk management. (3) The DCC/DECO Gaussian copula and t-copula work very well for both VaR and ES. (4) Grouped t-copulas and t-copulas with dynamic degrees of freedom further match the fat tail. (5) Correctly modeling the dependence structure makes an improvement in portfolio optimization with respect to tail risk. (6) Models driven by multivariate t innovations with exogenously given degrees of freedom provide a flexible and applicable alternative for optimal portfolio risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Xisong & Lehnert Thorsten, 2018. "Large portfolio risk management and optimal portfolio allocation with dynamic elliptical copulas," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 19-46, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:demode:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:19-46:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/demo-2018-0002
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    3. Duy Duong & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2020. "Tail dependence in emerging ASEAN-6 equity markets: empirical evidence from quantitative approaches," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.

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